TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Skvrna vs Dominik Pawlik 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116117711119––
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 7–4 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Skvrna beat Pawlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.57 / Pawlik 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Skvrna)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13177604
Skvrna1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 226 of 383
Up 2–0, closes it95% 72 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it75% 157 of 210
Pawlik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 49 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna6wins
AwayPawlik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna85.7%6 of 7
AwayPawlik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna7Pawlik3n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S2Skvrna3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S3Skvrna4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Skvrna6Pawlik3n = 9Skvrna took 6 of 9
S5Skvrna2Pawlik1n = 3Skvrna took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaPawlikS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.939.6+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 827 vs 242 / 48458.2%50%481 / 827 vs 242 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.57/Pawlik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna46125117113D. Pawlik42101151152
WAug 2 · 09:45J. Skvrna44111111113D. Pawlik33613951
WJul 29 · 08:45J. Skvrna4111118113D. Pawlik36791191
LJul 29 · 07:45J. Skvrna359101151D. Pawlik4111127113
LApr 27 · 11:40J. Skvrna48811811102D. Pawlik48117117123
WApr 18 · 12:40J. Skvrna4115411113D. Pawlik401311791
LApr 18 · 11:10J. Skvrna351131561D. Pawlik4451117113
WApr 18 · 05:40J. Skvrna5811131211113D. Pawlik4871514752
WApr 12 · 12:45J. Skvrna3511121113D. Pawlik312101181
LApr 12 · 09:40J. Skvrna269890D. Pawlik331111113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 22 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.83512421T. Krenek1.83111011113WSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.57125117113D. Pawlik2.25101151152LSep 22 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.501191171D. Jr2.5013116113LSep 20 · 21:24M. Macurak1.9111115113J. Skvrna1.80971161LSep 20 · 19:45M. Macurak2.1013118113J. Skvrna1.671171131WSep 20 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.6351211121J. Skvrna1.4411148143WSep 20 · 18:15J. Skvrna1.8311811113J. Travnicek1.83711941WSep 18 · 13:15T. Krenek1.83109130J. Skvrna1.831211153LSep 18 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9161112113J. Skvrna1.801191081WSep 18 · 11:15T. Krenek1.911199111J. Skvrna1.8071111133
D. Pawlik10
LSep 22 · 12:15D. Pawlik2.009790D. Jr1.731111113LSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.57125117113D. Pawlik2.25101151152LSep 22 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111177123D. Pawlik2.00681111102WSep 21 · 08:48I. Heuman1.7311111962D. Pawlik2.00661111113LSep 21 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73411811113D. Pawlik2.0011311482WSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113LSep 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik2.2011861152I. Heuman1.61811115113WSep 18 · 08:43D. Pawlik1.501311113D. Vitasek2.5011750WSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113
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