TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ivan Heuman
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116116111911611
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 83 set 5, 6-11
83 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 3–1 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Heuman beat Pawlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heuman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heuman form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 1.73 / Pawlik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Heuman)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13168515
Heuman1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite45% won 45 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it69% 33 of 48
Pawlik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 47 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHeuman3wins
AwayPawlik1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderHeuman leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman2Pawlik2n = 4split evenly
S2Heuman4Pawlik0n = 4Heuman took 4 of 4
S3Heuman3Pawlik1n = 4Heuman took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHeumanPawlikH − PBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.534.2+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 428 vs 241 / 48049.1%50.2%210 / 428 vs 241 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanHeuman 1.73/Pawlik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 21 · 06:15I. Heuman46811115113D. Pawlik4111861152
WMay 26 · 09:40I. Heuman351311113D. Pawlik2611960
LFeb 24 · 06:40I. Heuman4881191192D. Pawlik45114118113
WDec 4 · 12:45I. Heuman331111113D. Pawlik259970
I. Heuman10
LSep 21 · 08:15I. Heuman2.10119861R. Benes1.6751111113LSep 21 · 06:45T. Krenek1.80111311113I. Heuman1.91815771WSep 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik2.2011861152I. Heuman1.61811115113WSep 16 · 21:10I. Heuman1.731111113A. Kanak2.007990LSep 16 · 20:15I. Heuman1.7338100A. Cizek2.001111123WSep 16 · 18:45D. Stusek1.4497111172I. Heuman2.63111186113WSep 16 · 18:15A. Kanak1.831168101I. Heuman1.8361111123LSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman1.6310311101A. Kanak2.1512119123WSep 15 · 20:10A. Kanak2.00581141I. Heuman1.7311118113LSep 15 · 19:10I. Heuman2.2010760D. Stusek1.611211113
D. Pawlik10
LSep 21 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73411811113D. Pawlik2.0011311482WSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113LSep 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik2.2011861152I. Heuman1.61811115113WSep 18 · 08:43D. Pawlik1.501311113D. Vitasek2.5011750WSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113LSep 18 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.80811911102T. Krenek1.91115119123WSep 17 · 12:43E. Precek1.916880D. Pawlik1.801111113LSep 17 · 11:40E. Precek2.38314115113D. Pawlik1.53111291192LSep 17 · 11:10L. Kantor2.3811115123D. Pawlik1.534611101
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