TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143137
Played Sep 16Finished
Ivan Heuman
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119119––––
Adam Kanak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Adam Kanak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Heuman at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 5–3 Adam Kanak Adam Kanak has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Heuman beat Kanak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:02What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Heuman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Heuman
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1567 vs Kanak 1571
Kanak
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 60% vs Kanak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 60% vs Kanak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman -1 · Kanak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heuman)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 1.73 / Kanak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Heuman)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13143137
Heuman1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite44% won 44 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it68% 32 of 47
Kanak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog66% won 23 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back39% 7 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHeuman5wins
AwayKanak3wins
1 of 8 to a deciderHeuman leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeuman66.7%4 of 6
AwayKanakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman6Kanak2n = 8Heuman took 6 of 8
S2Heuman4Kanak4n = 8split evenly
S3Heuman5Kanak3n = 8Heuman took 5 of 8
S4Heuman4Kanak2n = 6Heuman took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricHeumanKanakH − KBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match38.435.6+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanKanakBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 424 vs 68 / 11849.1%57.6%208 / 424 vs 68 / 118Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanHeuman 1.73/Kanak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 16 · 18:15I. Heuman4061111123A. Kanak351168101
LSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman3410311101A. Kanak4412119123
WSep 15 · 20:10I. Heuman4111118113A. Kanak28581141
WSep 14 · 20:10I. Heuman391215123A. Kanak331013100
WSep 10 · 18:15I. Heuman3611311113A. Kanak29611661
WAug 29 · 17:45I. Heuman351311113A. Kanak2611690
LAug 24 · 20:43I. Heuman371191071A. Kanak3951112113
LAug 24 · 20:10I. Heuman4511881172A. Kanak51911119113
I. Heuman10
LSep 16 · 20:15I. Heuman1.7338100A. Cizek2.001111123WSep 16 · 18:45D. Stusek1.4497111172I. Heuman2.63111186113WSep 16 · 18:15A. Kanak1.831168101I. Heuman1.8361111123LSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman1.6310311101A. Kanak2.1512119123WSep 15 · 20:10A. Kanak2.00581141I. Heuman1.7311118113LSep 15 · 19:10I. Heuman2.2010760D. Stusek1.611211113LSep 15 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.67124912113I. Heuman2.101011111092WSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman2.00111111123D. Vitasek1.739913101WSep 14 · 20:10A. Kanak1.831013100I. Heuman1.831215123WSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680
A. Kanak10
WSep 16 · 19:45D. Stusek1.8010111071A. Kanak1.9112612113WSep 16 · 19:15A. Cizek2.20136112102A. Kanak1.611111811123LSep 16 · 18:15A. Kanak1.831168101I. Heuman1.8361111123WSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman1.6310311101A. Kanak2.1512119123LSep 15 · 20:10A. Kanak2.00581141I. Heuman1.7311118113LSep 15 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.91991111113A. Kanak1.8011117872WSep 15 · 18:10D. Stusek1.80117691A. Kanak1.9141111113WSep 14 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.8311780A. Kanak1.831311113LSep 14 · 20:10A. Kanak1.831013100I. Heuman1.831215123LSep 14 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.83117711113A. Kanak1.8391111892
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