TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181315117117––
Ivan Heuman
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Ivan Heuman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 83 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 14–15 Ivan Heuman Tomas Krenek has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1678 vs Heuman 1578
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 40% vs Heuman 80%
Heuman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 70% vs Heuman 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -2 · Heuman +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krenek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heuman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.80 / Heuman 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krenek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13166555
Krenek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 115 of 206
Up 2–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it75% 79 of 105
Heuman1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back32% 17 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek5wins
AwayHeuman5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHeuman62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek2Heuman8n = 10Heuman took 8 of 10
S2Krenek7Heuman3n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S3Krenek4Heuman6n = 10Heuman took 6 of 10
S4Krenek4Heuman3n = 7Krenek took 4 of 7
S5Krenek3Heuman2n = 5Krenek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekHeumanK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.542.7−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 939 vs 210 / 42750.9%49.2%478 / 939 vs 210 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.80/Heuman 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 06:45T. Krenek46111311113I. Heuman37815771
WJul 21 · 06:40T. Krenek49711119113I. Heuman4111851162
LJul 16 · 06:10T. Krenek36811891I. Heuman4211911113
LJul 13 · 06:15T. Krenek49111261192I. Heuman531310118113
WJun 22 · 07:15T. Krenek48911134113I. Heuman46114111192
LJun 17 · 08:45T. Krenek2571170I. Heuman351113113
LJun 17 · 06:10T. Krenek50101581162I. Heuman561213119113
WJun 1 · 07:10T. Krenek54811414173I. Heuman571181112152
WMay 26 · 13:05T. Krenek331111113I. Heuman195950
LMay 26 · 11:40T. Krenek35161090I. Heuman411812113
T. Krenek10
LSep 21 · 05:45T. Krenek1.80117991R. Benes1.9171111113LSep 18 · 13:15T. Krenek1.83109130J. Skvrna1.831211153WSep 18 · 12:15R. Benes1.73461151T. Krenek2.0011113113LSep 18 · 11:15T. Krenek1.911199111J. Skvrna1.8071111133WSep 18 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.73117381T. Krenek2.0071111113WSep 18 · 09:13T. Krenek1.8311811113R. Benes1.83811571WSep 18 · 08:15R. Benes1.73811691T. Krenek2.0011811113WSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070WSep 18 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.80811911102T. Krenek1.91115119123WSep 17 · 16:44K. Kleprlik1.441181491T. Krenek2.6361116113
I. Heuman10
WSep 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik2.2011861152I. Heuman1.61811115113WSep 16 · 21:10I. Heuman1.731111113A. Kanak2.007990LSep 16 · 20:15I. Heuman1.7338100A. Cizek2.001111123WSep 16 · 18:45D. Stusek1.4497111172I. Heuman2.63111186113WSep 16 · 18:15A. Kanak1.831168101I. Heuman1.8361111123LSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman1.6310311101A. Kanak2.1512119123WSep 15 · 20:10A. Kanak2.00581141I. Heuman1.7311118113LSep 15 · 19:10I. Heuman2.2010760D. Stusek1.611211113LSep 15 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.67124912113I. Heuman2.101011111092WSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman2.00111111123D. Vitasek1.739913101
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