TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811611115511
Ivan Heuman
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Ivan Heuman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Ivan Heuman at 57.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 1–3 Ivan Heuman Dominik Pawlik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heuman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Heuman
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1597 vs Heuman 1578
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Heuman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 40% vs Heuman 60%
Heuman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +2 · Heuman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Heuman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 2.20 / Heuman 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Heuman)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13166552
Pawlik2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 47 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Heuman1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 45 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it69% 33 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePawlik1wins
AwayHeuman3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderHeuman leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik2Heuman2n = 4split evenly
S2Pawlik0Heuman4n = 4Heuman took 4 of 4
S3Pawlik1Heuman3n = 4Heuman took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricPawlikHeumanP − HBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.240.5−6.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 479 vs 210 / 42750.3%49.2%241 / 479 vs 210 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanPawlik 2.20/Heuman 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik4111861152I. Heuman46811115113
LMay 26 · 09:40D. Pawlik2611960I. Heuman351311113
WFeb 24 · 06:40D. Pawlik45114118113I. Heuman4881191192
LDec 4 · 12:45D. Pawlik259970I. Heuman331111113
D. Pawlik10
WSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113WSep 18 · 08:43D. Pawlik1.501311113D. Vitasek2.5011750WSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113LSep 18 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.80811911102T. Krenek1.91115119123WSep 17 · 12:43E. Precek1.916880D. Pawlik1.801111113LSep 17 · 11:40E. Precek2.38314115113D. Pawlik1.53111291192LSep 17 · 11:10L. Kantor2.3811115123D. Pawlik1.534611101LSep 17 · 10:10D. Pawlik2.38911891D. Jr1.5311511113LSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100
I. Heuman10
LSep 21 · 06:45T. Krenek1.80111311113I. Heuman1.91815771WSep 16 · 21:10I. Heuman1.731111113A. Kanak2.007990LSep 16 · 20:15I. Heuman1.7338100A. Cizek2.001111123WSep 16 · 18:45D. Stusek1.4497111172I. Heuman2.63111186113WSep 16 · 18:15A. Kanak1.831168101I. Heuman1.8361111123LSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman1.6310311101A. Kanak2.1512119123WSep 15 · 20:10A. Kanak2.00581141I. Heuman1.7311118113LSep 15 · 19:10I. Heuman2.2010760D. Stusek1.611211113LSep 15 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.67124912113I. Heuman2.101011111092WSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman2.00111111123D. Vitasek1.739913101
Upcoming Matches
D. Pawlik
Nothing scheduled
I. Heuman
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