TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711911911––
Radek Benes
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 55.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 70–69 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 69 of their 139 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-69 in 139
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1685 vs Benes 1545
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 60% vs Benes 40%
Krenek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 70% vs Benes 20%
Krenek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krenek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.80 / Benes 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krenek)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13166233
Krenek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 115 of 206
Up 2–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it75% 79 of 105
Benes1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 58 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek7wins
AwayBenes3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek100%6 of 6
AwayBenes75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek6Benes4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Krenek4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S3Krenek6Benes4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S4Krenek4Benes3n = 7Krenek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekBenesK − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.6+2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 937 vs 500 / 96550.9%51.8%477 / 937 vs 500 / 965Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.80/Benes 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 12:15T. Krenek3611113113R. Benes26461151
WSep 18 · 09:13T. Krenek4111811113R. Benes31811571
WSep 18 · 08:15T. Krenek4111811113R. Benes34811691
WSep 3 · 08:44T. Krenek331111113R. Benes259790
LSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek25411100R. Benes361113123
WSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek54159118113R. Benes46131161152
WSep 2 · 10:15T. Krenek4412811133R. Benes4110119111
WSep 2 · 07:45T. Krenek48811117113R. Benes4611791182
LAug 31 · 09:40T. Krenek381011981R. Benes4312911113
LAug 31 · 07:40T. Krenek3299140R. Benes381111163
T. Krenek10
WSep 21 · 06:45T. Krenek1.80111311113I. Heuman1.91815771LSep 18 · 13:15T. Krenek1.83109130J. Skvrna1.831211153WSep 18 · 12:15R. Benes1.73461151T. Krenek2.0011113113LSep 18 · 11:15T. Krenek1.911199111J. Skvrna1.8071111133WSep 18 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.73117381T. Krenek2.0071111113WSep 18 · 09:13T. Krenek1.8311811113R. Benes1.83811571WSep 18 · 08:15R. Benes1.73811691T. Krenek2.0011811113WSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070WSep 18 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.80811911102T. Krenek1.91115119123WSep 17 · 16:44K. Kleprlik1.441181491T. Krenek2.6361116113
R. Benes10
LSep 19 · 13:15F. Chaloupka1.6081111113R. Benes2.07117881WSep 19 · 12:15R. Sedlacek2.008680R. Benes1.731111113LSep 19 · 11:15R. Benes2.10611461F. Chaloupka1.6711911113WSep 19 · 09:45K. Kleprlik2.0091171392R. Benes1.731181111113LSep 19 · 08:45R. Sedlacek1.911511129113R. Benes1.80138141192LSep 19 · 08:15R. Benes1.73510120R. Sedlacek2.001112143LSep 19 · 06:45J. Krupnik1.911171111113R. Benes1.8061151352LSep 18 · 12:15R. Benes1.73461151T. Krenek2.0011113113LSep 18 · 09:13T. Krenek1.8311811113R. Benes1.83811571LSep 18 · 08:15R. Benes1.73811691T. Krenek2.0011811113
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