TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156734
Played Sep 19Finished
Radek Benes
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611119411611––
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:51 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 12–19 Frantisek Chaloupka Radek Benes has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chaloupka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-19 in 31
Chaloupka
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1549 vs Chaloupka 1626
Chaloupka
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 20% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 10% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +1 · Chaloupka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chaloupka) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.10 / Chaloupka 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Chaloupka)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13156734
Benes2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 59 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back26% 20 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Chaloupka1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 94 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 61 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it75% 80 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes4wins
AwayChaloupka6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%3 of 3
AwayChaloupka85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Chaloupka7n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S2Benes2Chaloupka8n = 10Chaloupka took 8 of 10
S3Benes5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S4Benes2Chaloupka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesChaloupkaB − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.936.2−4.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 962 vs 274 / 52951.9%51.8%499 / 962 vs 274 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaBenes 2.10/Chaloupka 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2788110F. Chaloupka351111133
LJul 11 · 09:45R. Benes214890F. Chaloupka331111113
WJul 1 · 16:45R. Benes3912511113F. Chaloupka381011981
WJul 1 · 14:40R. Benes43101111113F. Chaloupka32123891
LJun 20 · 14:15R. Benes3098130F. Chaloupka371111153
LJun 12 · 16:30R. Benes156360F. Chaloupka331111113
LJun 12 · 15:15R. Benes359111141F. Chaloupka4411139113
WMay 30 · 19:40R. Benes341111123F. Chaloupka2679100
WMay 24 · 15:40R. Benes541171212123F. Chaloupka494111014102
LMay 22 · 16:10R. Benes2151150F. Chaloupka351113113
R. Benes10
WSep 19 · 12:15R. Sedlacek2.008680R. Benes1.731111113WSep 19 · 09:45K. Kleprlik2.0091171392R. Benes1.731181111113LSep 19 · 08:45R. Sedlacek1.911511129113R. Benes1.80138141192LSep 19 · 08:15R. Benes1.73510120R. Sedlacek2.001112143LSep 19 · 06:45J. Krupnik1.911171111113R. Benes1.8061151352LSep 19 · 06:15J. Skalicky2.1011111111113R. Benes1.6713813792LSep 18 · 12:44J. Krupnik1.8311148113R. Benes1.836121181LSep 18 · 12:15R. Benes1.73461151T. Krenek2.0011113113LSep 18 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.91911119133R. Benes1.80115411112LSep 18 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73911115153R. Benes2.00118711132
F. Chaloupka10
WSep 19 · 11:45K. Kleprlik1.83911961F. Chaloupka1.8311611113LSep 19 · 10:15F. Chaloupka1.531041581R. Sedlacek2.38121113113LSep 19 · 09:09F. Chaloupka1.508570J. Travnicek2.501111113WSep 19 · 07:40F. Chaloupka1.611111113J. Travnicek2.208970WSep 19 · 06:40F. Chaloupka1.5781111113D. Vitasek2.25116891WSep 19 · 05:40F. Chaloupka1.53111197113E. Precek2.3859111192WSep 17 · 17:09B. Mrowetz1.678811121F. Chaloupka2.1011118143LSep 17 · 15:45F. Chaloupka1.73711212102B. Mrowetz2.001171110123WSep 17 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.831111113T. Krenek1.836970WSep 17 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.67111012113K. Kleprlik2.109121061
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