TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156728
Played Sep 19Finished
Radek Sedlacek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611811––––
Radek Benes
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:50 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Sedlacek above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Radek Sedlacek 17–20 Radek Benes Radek Sedlacek has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 4h before this match
Sedlacek beat Benes 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:50What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Benes
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sedlacek 1577 vs Benes 1540
Sedlacek
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedlacek 60% vs Benes 20%
Sedlacek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedlacek 70% vs Benes 10%
Sedlacek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedlacek -1 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedlacek 2.00 / Benes 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13156728
Sedlacek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 30 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back28% 12 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Benes1.73
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 170 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it94% 72 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 114 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSedlacek4wins
AwayBenes6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSedlacek66.7%4 of 6
AwayBenes100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sedlacek6Benes4n = 10Sedlacek took 6 of 10
S2Sedlacek6Benes4n = 10Sedlacek took 6 of 10
S3Sedlacek5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Sedlacek1Benes7n = 8Benes took 7 of 8
S5Sedlacek2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSedlacekBenesS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.440.8+0.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedlacekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 319 vs 499 / 96346.4%51.8%148 / 319 vs 499 / 963Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesSedlacek 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 08:45R. Sedlacek581511129113R. Benes55138141192
WSep 19 · 08:15R. Sedlacek371112143R. Benes27510120
LSep 9 · 10:10R. Sedlacek4411511892R. Benes43411611113
LSep 9 · 07:40R. Sedlacek361011691R. Benes4312911113
LSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek35871191R. Benes3911116113
LAug 10 · 10:10R. Sedlacek361110691R. Benes3841211113
WJul 27 · 08:10R. Sedlacek351111133R. Benes2595110
LJun 24 · 13:15R. Sedlacek47611713102R. Benes511161111123
WJun 24 · 10:10R. Sedlacek541410118113R. Benes50121261192
LJun 24 · 08:40R. Sedlacek32511791R. Benes3711411113
R. Sedlacek10
LSep 19 · 12:44K. Kleprlik1.80661111123R. Sedlacek1.91111176112LSep 19 · 10:45K. Kleprlik1.91911911113R. Sedlacek1.8011611782WSep 19 · 10:15F. Chaloupka1.531041581R. Sedlacek2.38121113113WSep 19 · 08:45R. Sedlacek1.911511129113R. Benes1.80138141192WSep 19 · 08:15R. Benes1.73510120R. Sedlacek2.001112143LSep 19 · 07:15R. Sedlacek2.1012581192J. Skalicky1.671011118113WSep 19 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.731111111282R. Sedlacek2.001313910113LSep 18 · 09:14R. Sedlacek1.53111165122L. Kantor2.38671111143WSep 18 · 08:10R. Sedlacek1.57101413113L. Kantor2.2512121141WSep 18 · 06:40T. Kindl2.00112111172R. Sedlacek1.73611137113
R. Benes10
LSep 19 · 13:15F. Chaloupka1.6081111113R. Benes2.07117881LSep 19 · 11:15R. Benes2.10611461F. Chaloupka1.6711911113WSep 19 · 09:45K. Kleprlik2.0091171392R. Benes1.731181111113LSep 19 · 08:45R. Sedlacek1.911511129113R. Benes1.80138141192LSep 19 · 08:15R. Benes1.73510120R. Sedlacek2.001112143LSep 19 · 06:45J. Krupnik1.911171111113R. Benes1.8061151352LSep 19 · 06:15J. Skalicky2.1011111111113R. Benes1.6713813792LSep 18 · 12:44J. Krupnik1.8311148113R. Benes1.836121181LSep 18 · 12:15R. Benes1.73461151T. Krenek2.0011113113LSep 18 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.91911119133R. Benes1.80115411112
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