TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13159389
Played Sep 19Finished
Frantisek Chaloupka
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117118118––
Radek Benes
Away
2.07
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-8
Point 73 set 4, 9-8 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 57.6%
73 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 20–12 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 12 of their 32 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chaloupka beat Benes 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (56%)
Chaloupka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-12 in 32
Chaloupka
Correct
gap of 8 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1645 vs Benes 1546
Chaloupka
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 60% vs Benes 40%
Chaloupka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 70% vs Benes 20%
Chaloupka
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka +2 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Chaloupka)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 1.60 / Benes 2.07
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Chaloupka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13159389
Chaloupka1.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 94 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 61 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it75% 80 of 107
Benes2.07
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 59 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back26% 20 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaloupka6wins
AwayBenes4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupka85.7%6 of 7
AwayBenes100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka7Benes3n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S2Chaloupka7Benes3n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S3Chaloupka5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Chaloupka3Benes2n = 5Chaloupka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaloupkaBenesC − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.932.5+4.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 531 vs 500 / 96452%51.9%276 / 531 vs 500 / 964Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaChaloupka 1.60/Benes 2.07
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 11:15F. Chaloupka4211911113R. Benes27611461
WSep 11 · 16:15F. Chaloupka351111133R. Benes2788110
WJul 11 · 09:45F. Chaloupka331111113R. Benes214890
LJul 1 · 16:45F. Chaloupka381011981R. Benes3912511113
LJul 1 · 14:40F. Chaloupka32123891R. Benes43101111113
WJun 20 · 14:15F. Chaloupka371111153R. Benes3098130
WJun 12 · 16:30F. Chaloupka331111113R. Benes156360
WJun 12 · 15:15F. Chaloupka4411139113R. Benes359111141
LMay 30 · 19:40F. Chaloupka2679100R. Benes341111123
LMay 24 · 15:40F. Chaloupka494111014102R. Benes541171212123
F. Chaloupka10
WSep 19 · 11:45K. Kleprlik1.83911961F. Chaloupka1.8311611113WSep 19 · 11:15R. Benes2.10611461F. Chaloupka1.6711911113LSep 19 · 10:15F. Chaloupka1.531041581R. Sedlacek2.38121113113LSep 19 · 09:09F. Chaloupka1.508570J. Travnicek2.501111113WSep 19 · 07:40F. Chaloupka1.611111113J. Travnicek2.208970WSep 19 · 06:40F. Chaloupka1.5781111113D. Vitasek2.25116891WSep 19 · 05:40F. Chaloupka1.53111197113E. Precek2.3859111192WSep 17 · 17:09B. Mrowetz1.678811121F. Chaloupka2.1011118143LSep 17 · 15:45F. Chaloupka1.73711212102B. Mrowetz2.001171110123WSep 17 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.831111113T. Krenek1.836970
R. Benes10
WSep 19 · 12:15R. Sedlacek2.008680R. Benes1.731111113LSep 19 · 11:15R. Benes2.10611461F. Chaloupka1.6711911113WSep 19 · 09:45K. Kleprlik2.0091171392R. Benes1.731181111113LSep 19 · 08:45R. Sedlacek1.911511129113R. Benes1.80138141192LSep 19 · 08:15R. Benes1.73510120R. Sedlacek2.001112143LSep 19 · 06:45J. Krupnik1.911171111113R. Benes1.8061151352LSep 19 · 06:15J. Skalicky2.1011111111113R. Benes1.6713813792LSep 18 · 12:44J. Krupnik1.8311148113R. Benes1.836121181LSep 18 · 12:15R. Benes1.73461151T. Krenek2.0011113113LSep 18 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.91911119133R. Benes1.80115411112
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