TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156409
Played Sep 19Finished
Jiri Skalicky
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131181113117119
Radek Benes
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Skalicky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Skalicky above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jiri Skalicky at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Skalicky 4–7 Radek Benes Jiri Skalicky has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Benes
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skalicky 1616 vs Benes 1561
Skalicky
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skalicky 40% vs Benes 0%
Skalicky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skalicky 20% vs Benes 40%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skalicky -1 · Benes -6
Benes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkalicky 2.10 / Benes 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13156409
Skalicky2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Benes1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 170 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it94% 72 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 114 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkalicky3wins
AwayBenes7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkalicky50%2 of 4
AwayBenes83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skalicky4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Skalicky3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S3Skalicky3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Skalicky3Benes3n = 6split evenly
S5Skalicky2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkalickyBenesS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.139.6−3.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkalickyBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 201 vs 498 / 95950.8%51.9%102 / 201 vs 498 / 959Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesSkalicky 2.10/Benes 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skalicky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 06:15J. Skalicky5511111111113R. Benes5013813792
WAug 9 · 15:45J. Skalicky511112611113R. Benes4291411262
WAug 2 · 11:10J. Skalicky341111123R. Benes2688100
LJul 26 · 12:10J. Skalicky257990R. Benes331111113
LMay 3 · 14:45J. Skalicky27661141R. Benes4211119113
LApr 18 · 17:20J. Skalicky341161071R. Benes4281112113
LApr 18 · 15:45J. Skalicky4461191172R. Benes47117117113
LApr 4 · 09:40J. Skalicky4411611792R. Benes47511911113
LDec 13 · 19:40J. Skalicky218670R. Benes331111113
LDec 6 · 13:50J. Skalicky2610880R. Benes341211113
J. Skalicky10
LSep 19 · 07:45J. Krupnik2.38128611113J. Skalicky1.53101111872WSep 19 · 07:15R. Sedlacek2.1012581192J. Skalicky1.671011118113LSep 13 · 08:40J. Gembala1.6711611113J. Skalicky2.10611881WSep 13 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.8011814113T. Krenek1.915111221LSep 13 · 06:40J. Gembala1.7311127113J. Skalicky2.009101171LSep 13 · 06:10F. Chaloupka1.831311510113J. Skalicky1.83117111282WSep 12 · 08:40F. Chaloupka1.919970J. Skalicky1.801111113LSep 12 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.80591161F. Chaloupka1.9111118113LSep 12 · 06:40B. Moravec1.6141111113J. Skalicky2.20117541LSep 12 · 06:10A. Vitasek1.731111113J. Skalicky2.006480
R. Benes10
LSep 19 · 06:45J. Krupnik1.911171111113R. Benes1.8061151352LSep 18 · 12:44J. Krupnik1.8311148113R. Benes1.836121181LSep 18 · 12:15R. Benes1.73461151T. Krenek2.0011113113LSep 18 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.91911119133R. Benes1.80115411112LSep 18 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73911115153R. Benes2.00118711132LSep 18 · 09:13T. Krenek1.8311811113R. Benes1.83811571LSep 18 · 08:15R. Benes1.73811691T. Krenek2.0011811113WSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113WSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113WSep 17 · 09:15R. Benes1.6211811113L. Slavik2.02511781
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