TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156739
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210811611118117
Jiri Skalicky
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeJiri Skalicky to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Jiri Skalicky below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jiri Skalicky at 58.4%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 6–10 Jiri Skalicky Jan Krupnik has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skalicky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Skalicky
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1621 vs Skalicky 1617
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 80% vs Skalicky 60%
Krupnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 40% vs Skalicky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +1 · Skalicky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Skalicky) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 2.38 / Skalicky 1.53
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Skalicky)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13156739
Krupnik2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 96 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back29% 25 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Skalicky1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 37 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 22 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik4wins
AwaySkalicky6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkalicky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik57.1%4 of 7
AwaySkalicky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik7Skalicky3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik4Skalicky6n = 10Skalicky took 6 of 10
S3Krupnik4Skalicky6n = 10Skalicky took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik3Skalicky7n = 10Skalicky took 7 of 10
S5Krupnik2Skalicky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikSkalickyK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.442.8−3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikSkalickyBasisWin rate · lifetime462 / 898 vs 102 / 20051.5%51%462 / 898 vs 102 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkalickyKrupnik 2.38/Skalicky 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Skalicky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 21:08J. Krupnik49101111892J. Skalicky49127811113
LAug 22 · 17:40J. Krupnik341011851J. Skalicky4012611113
WAug 16 · 10:45J. Krupnik49119117113J. Skalicky4591191152
LAug 1 · 17:45J. Krupnik34119951J. Skalicky4291111113
WJul 19 · 08:43J. Krupnik3811124113J. Skalicky378101181
LJul 19 · 07:15J. Krupnik35119961J. Skalicky4181111113
WJul 11 · 13:45J. Krupnik45111211113J. Skalicky37814871
LMay 23 · 12:50J. Krupnik3511441152J. Skalicky50811119113
WMay 23 · 12:10J. Krupnik45116116113J. Skalicky4781191182
LMay 10 · 14:15J. Krupnik30711571J. Skalicky4011711113
J. Krupnik10
WSep 19 · 06:45J. Krupnik1.911171111113R. Benes1.8061151352LSep 19 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.731111111282R. Sedlacek2.001313910113WSep 18 · 12:44J. Krupnik1.8311148113R. Benes1.836121181WSep 18 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9161112113J. Skvrna1.801191081WSep 18 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.91911119133R. Benes1.80115411112LSep 18 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.73117381T. Krenek2.0071111113LSep 17 · 12:45M. Macurak1.611111123J. Krupnik2.2057100LSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9181361182J. Skvrna1.801111118113LSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik2.381391181M. Macurak1.5315119113LSep 17 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.731491191T. Krenek2.0016117113
J. Skalicky10
WSep 19 · 07:15R. Sedlacek2.1012581192J. Skalicky1.671011118113WSep 19 · 06:15J. Skalicky2.1011111111113R. Benes1.6713813792LSep 13 · 08:40J. Gembala1.6711611113J. Skalicky2.10611881WSep 13 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.8011814113T. Krenek1.915111221LSep 13 · 06:40J. Gembala1.7311127113J. Skalicky2.009101171LSep 13 · 06:10F. Chaloupka1.831311510113J. Skalicky1.83117111282WSep 12 · 08:40F. Chaloupka1.919970J. Skalicky1.801111113LSep 12 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.80591161F. Chaloupka1.9111118113LSep 12 · 06:40B. Moravec1.6141111113J. Skalicky2.20117541LSep 12 · 06:10A. Vitasek1.731111113J. Skalicky2.006480
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