TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Pawlik vs Dalibor Velky Jr 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711911––––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 56.8%
58 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 9–9 Dalibor Velky Jr Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1582 vs Jr 1563
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -2 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 2.00 / Jr 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13173280
Pawlik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 49 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Jr1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 68 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it71% 52 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik4wins
AwayJr6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik60%3 of 5
AwayJr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Pawlik5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Pawlik4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik2Jr6n = 8Jr took 6 of 8
S5Pawlik2Jr1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikJrP − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.239.5−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikJrBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 483 vs 273 / 54950.1%49.7%242 / 483 vs 273 / 549Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrPawlik 2.00/Jr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 10:10D. Pawlik37911891D. Jr3811511113
LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik341251431D. Jr48141112113
WSep 2 · 08:15D. Pawlik3911611113D. Jr30611851
WAug 29 · 08:50D. Pawlik461111103113D. Jr4294121162
LAug 29 · 07:15D. Pawlik401178141D. Jr4681111163
WAug 28 · 07:45D. Pawlik351111133D. Jr2779110
LAug 21 · 10:15D. Pawlik2410680D. Jr341211113
LAug 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik431591181D. Jr4417115113
LAug 14 · 07:10D. Pawlik4611116992D. Jr48961111113
WAug 3 · 07:10D. Pawlik48611812113D. Jr38115111012
D. Pawlik10
LSep 22 · 12:44J. Skvrna1.5711117113D. Pawlik2.25671191LSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.57125117113D. Pawlik2.25101151152LSep 22 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111177123D. Pawlik2.00681111102WSep 21 · 08:48I. Heuman1.7311111962D. Pawlik2.00661111113LSep 21 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73411811113D. Pawlik2.0011311482WSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113LSep 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik2.2011861152I. Heuman1.61811115113WSep 18 · 08:43D. Pawlik1.501311113D. Vitasek2.5011750WSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113
D. Jr10
LSep 22 · 11:15D. Jr2.5011581182T. Krenek1.50911117113WSep 22 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.501191171D. Jr2.5013116113LSep 18 · 20:45D. Jr2.208580K. Kleprlik1.611111113LSep 18 · 20:10A. Kanak2.20711114133D. Jr1.61119811112WSep 18 · 19:10D. Jr2.631011811113K. Kleprlik1.4412511592LSep 18 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.831112113D. Jr1.8371090LSep 17 · 13:14L. Kantor1.5711911113D. Jr2.25411791LSep 17 · 12:10D. Jr1.91118451L. Kantor1.8081111113WSep 17 · 10:40E. Precek1.80108100D. Jr1.911211123WSep 17 · 10:10D. Pawlik2.38911891D. Jr1.5311511113
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