TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Sarganek vs Jan Skvrna 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
David Sarganek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131210118––––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 8–11 Jan Skvrna David Sarganek has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:22What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1640 vs Skvrna 1659
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 40% vs Skvrna 20%
Sarganek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 50% vs Skvrna 30%
Sarganek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek -2 · Skvrna -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 1.83 / Skvrna 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvrna)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13182695
Sarganek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Skvrna1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek4wins
AwaySkvrna6wins
Skvrna leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek100%3 of 3
AwaySkvrna85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek3Skvrna7n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S2Sarganek6Skvrna4n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S3Sarganek3Skvrna7n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S4Sarganek3Skvrna3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekSkvrnaSarganek − SkvrnaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.133.7−1.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 496 vs 483 / 83352%58%258 / 496 vs 483 / 833Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.840.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSarganek 1.83/Skvrna 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 4 · 20:45D. Sarganek225980J. Skvrna331111113
LApr 4 · 20:15D. Sarganek208570J. Skvrna331111113
WMar 2 · 19:40D. Sarganek4391211113J. Skvrna271110421
WMar 1 · 17:35D. Sarganek331111113J. Skvrna164570
LMar 1 · 15:40D. Sarganek185580J. Skvrna331111113
WFeb 16 · 17:10D. Sarganek4311128123J. Skvrna4091011101
LFeb 13 · 16:40D. Sarganek381011891J. Skvrna4312911113
LFeb 12 · 12:45D. Sarganek30511861J. Skvrna3811511113
LJan 26 · 10:20D. Sarganek346111161J. Skvrna3811313113
WJan 26 · 08:40D. Sarganek4011711113J. Skvrna36711991
D. Sarganek10
WSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek1.6171111113A. Baros2.20118631LSep 23 · 13:40D. Sarganek1.83471371M. Zaskodny1.83111111113LSep 21 · 20:48D. Sarganek1.739390P. Vicherek2.001111113WSep 21 · 19:40P. Vicherek1.91112111052D. Sarganek1.80711112113LSep 21 · 19:10A. Baros2.20111119113D. Sarganek1.6111361152WSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022LSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros2.2013980D. Sarganek1.611511113WSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113WSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081
J. Skvrna10
LSep 23 · 14:10A. Baros1.73511136113J. Skvrna2.00116111182WSep 23 · 12:40L. Slavik2.20910111552J. Skvrna1.611112813113LSep 23 · 11:45L. Slavik2.251281211113J. Skvrna1.57101114892LSep 23 · 11:15B. Mrowetz1.911111113J. Skvrna1.807970LSep 23 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.6774111192J. Krupnik2.10111176113WSep 22 · 12:44J. Skvrna1.5711117113D. Pawlik2.25671191LSep 22 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.83512421T. Krenek1.83111011113WSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.57125117113D. Pawlik2.25101151152LSep 22 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.501191171D. Jr2.5013116113LSep 20 · 21:24M. Macurak1.9111115113J. Skvrna1.80971161
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