TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158379
Played Sep 19Finished
David Sarganek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131151210118––
Rene Kowal
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:46 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 — our read held David Sarganek at 54.3%
81 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 24–24 Rene Kowal Dead even across their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:46What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-24 in 48
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1640 vs Kowal 1619
Sarganek
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 60% vs Kowal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 50% vs Kowal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek -1 · Kowal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sarganek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 1.73 / Kowal 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sarganek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13158379
Sarganek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 61 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it84% 41 of 49
Kowal2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 34 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek6wins
AwayKowal4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek85.7%6 of 7
AwayKowal100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek7Kowal3n = 10Sarganek took 7 of 10
S2Sarganek5Kowal5n = 10split evenly
S3Sarganek5Kowal5n = 10split evenly
S4Sarganek3Kowal1n = 4Sarganek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekKowalS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.731.6+2.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 487 vs 145 / 28852%50.4%253 / 487 vs 145 / 288Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekSarganek 1.73/Kowal 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek196760R. Kowal331111113
WSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek331111113R. Kowal227690
LSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek185850R. Kowal331111113
WAug 4 · 15:40D. Sarganek3511112113R. Kowal31591161
WJul 22 · 18:45D. Sarganek331111113R. Kowal209830
WJul 21 · 19:40D. Sarganek46116414113R. Kowal41311111242
WJul 15 · 21:05D. Sarganek331111113R. Kowal247980
LJul 15 · 18:40D. Sarganek391191091R. Kowal3731112113
WJul 13 · 17:20D. Sarganek331111113R. Kowal196940
LJul 13 · 14:10D. Sarganek4888131452R. Kowal5611111112113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113LSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113WSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690LSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752WSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros2.251198101D. Sarganek1.5781111123WSep 14 · 17:20P. Vicherek1.91971151D. Sarganek1.8011117113WSep 14 · 16:10D. Sarganek2.00118118113M. Zaskodny1.7341161152WSep 14 · 14:40F. Sikora1.731013981D. Sarganek2.00121111113LSep 14 · 14:10P. Vicherek2.101212113D. Sarganek1.67101050LSep 9 · 21:10D. Sarganek2.357790R. Niezgoda1.481111113
R. Kowal10
LSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892WSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690WSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102WSep 15 · 17:45P. Vicherek1.91116118102R. Kowal1.80511111123LSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek2.0011911113R. Kowal1.73911591WSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113LSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113
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