TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13133971
Played Sep 15Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1189118111012––
David Sarganek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12 — our read held David Sarganek at 56.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 24–37 David Sarganek Antonin Baros has won 24 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-37 in 61
Sarganek
Correct
gap of 13 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1689 vs Sarganek 1582
Baros
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 40% vs Sarganek 60%
Sarganek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 60% vs Sarganek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +1 · Sarganek +3
Sarganek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sarganek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.25 / Sarganek 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Sarganek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13133971
Baros2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 54 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Sarganek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 62 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros4wins
AwaySarganek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros66.7%4 of 6
AwaySarganek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros6Sarganek4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S2Baros4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S3Baros5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S4Baros1Sarganek2n = 3Sarganek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosSarganekB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.033.5−2.5per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 391 vs 251 / 48346.8%52%183 / 391 vs 251 / 483Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekBaros 2.25/Sarganek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros3711311123D. Sarganek367118101
WSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros341211113D. Sarganek2610880
WAug 20 · 20:15A. Baros361111143D. Sarganek2567120
LAug 18 · 21:14A. Baros2110560D. Sarganek341211113
LAug 18 · 19:15A. Baros4511611892D. Sarganek45811411113
WJul 22 · 20:15A. Baros341111123D. Sarganek2037100
LJul 21 · 19:10A. Baros209650D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 18 · 19:15A. Baros218760D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 15 · 20:10A. Baros186660D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 2 · 17:40A. Baros44111112552D. Sarganek50591411113
A. Baros10
WSep 15 · 19:45P. Vicherek1.73613691A. Baros2.00111111113LSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102WSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 17:40A. Baros1.57861131M. Zaskodny2.2511114113LSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113LSep 7 · 15:40F. Sikora1.531111113A. Baros2.385880WSep 7 · 15:10P. Vicherek1.6711711792A. Baros2.10411411113WSep 7 · 14:10A. Baros2.201113113J. Rak1.6181150
D. Sarganek10
WSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690LSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752WSep 14 · 17:20P. Vicherek1.91971151D. Sarganek1.8011117113WSep 14 · 16:10D. Sarganek2.00118118113M. Zaskodny1.7341161152WSep 14 · 14:40F. Sikora1.731013981D. Sarganek2.00121111113LSep 14 · 14:10P. Vicherek2.101212113D. Sarganek1.67101050LSep 9 · 21:10D. Sarganek2.357790R. Niezgoda1.481111113LSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.