TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134538
Played Sep 15Finished
Rene Kowal
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12103111163111210
Antonin Baros
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRene Kowal above · Antonin Baros below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 89 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Rene Kowal at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Rene Kowal 22–24 Antonin Baros Rene Kowal has won 22 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:08What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kowal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-24 in 46
Baros
Wrong
gap of 2 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowal 1616 vs Baros 1674
Baros
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowal 40% vs Baros 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowal 30% vs Baros 50%
Baros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowal +1 · Baros -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowal 1.73 / Baros 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kowal)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13134538
Kowal1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 40 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Baros2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 54 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowal6wins
AwayBaros4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKowal leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowal100%6 of 6
AwayBaros100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowal6Baros4n = 10Kowal took 6 of 10
S2Kowal5Baros5n = 10split evenly
S3Kowal5Baros5n = 10split evenly
S4Kowal6Baros4n = 10Kowal took 6 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalBarosK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.635.9+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 285 vs 183 / 39250.2%46.7%143 / 285 vs 183 / 392Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalKowal 1.73/Baros 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 20:15R. Kowal30961141A. Baros4011117113
LAug 26 · 18:15R. Kowal4491113292A. Baros521181111113
WAug 10 · 20:10R. Kowal3811115113A. Baros28841151
LJul 22 · 20:38R. Kowal33691171A. Baros3811115113
WJul 22 · 17:45R. Kowal3911611113A. Baros27911341
WJul 21 · 20:34R. Kowal3911116113A. Baros28761141
WJul 21 · 17:40R. Kowal561191411113A. Baros4481116542
WJul 15 · 17:40R. Kowal4411913113A. Baros338111131
WJul 2 · 20:45R. Kowal3811115113A. Baros30761161
LJul 2 · 19:10R. Kowal25611351A. Baros3911611113
R. Kowal10
WSep 15 · 17:45P. Vicherek1.91116118102R. Kowal1.80511111123LSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek2.0011911113R. Kowal1.73911591WSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113LSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113
A. Baros10
LSep 15 · 20:43A. Baros2.10113761P. Vicherek1.6751111113WSep 15 · 19:45P. Vicherek1.73613691A. Baros2.00111111113LSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros2.251198101D. Sarganek1.5781111123WSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 17:40A. Baros1.57861131M. Zaskodny2.2511114113LSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113LSep 7 · 15:40F. Sikora1.531111113A. Baros2.385880WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141
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