TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13133972
Played Sep 15Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1156111118111012
Rene Kowal
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 86 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 20–24 Rene Kowal Petr Vicherek has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:16What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kowal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-24 in 44
Kowal
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1693 vs Kowal 1603
Vicherek
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 60% vs Kowal 40%
Vicherek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 60% vs Kowal 30%
Vicherek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek -2 · Kowal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.91 / Kowal 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kowal)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13133972
Vicherek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 54 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 41
Kowal1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 40 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVicherek6wins
AwayKowal4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVicherek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek83.3%5 of 6
AwayKowal100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek6Kowal3n = 9Vicherek took 6 of 9
S2Vicherek5Kowal4n = 9Vicherek took 5 of 9
S3Vicherek3Kowal6n = 9Kowal took 6 of 9
S4Vicherek4Kowal2n = 6Vicherek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVicherekKowalV − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match34.135.0−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 360 vs 142 / 28446.9%50%169 / 360 vs 142 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalVicherek 1.91/Kowal 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek4211911113R. Kowal34911591
WSep 9 · 19:15P. Vicherek4111118113R. Kowal32861171
LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek248880R. Kowal331111113
WAug 31 · 19:15P. Vicherek341111123R. Kowal2367100
LAug 10 · 19:10P. Vicherek3911116922R. Kowal48961111113
WJul 22 · 19:45P. Vicherek4111118113R. Kowal34691181
WJul 15 · 19:40P. Vicherek3911411133R. Kowal367117111
LJul 9 · 21:10P. Vicherek217860R. Kowal331111113
LJul 9 · 19:10P. Vicherek26811431R. Kowal4211911113
P. Vicherek10
WSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752LSep 14 · 17:20P. Vicherek1.91971151D. Sarganek1.8011117113LSep 14 · 15:40F. Sikora1.7381112113P. Vicherek2.001171051WSep 14 · 15:10M. Zaskodny2.25111155112P. Vicherek1.57891111133WSep 14 · 14:10P. Vicherek2.101212113D. Sarganek1.67101050WSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek2.0011911113R. Kowal1.73911591LSep 9 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111113P. Vicherek2.009730WSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113LSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.9110890D. Sarganek1.801211113WSep 8 · 16:40P. Vicherek1.801111113J. Rak1.911960
R. Kowal10
LSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek2.0011911113R. Kowal1.73911591WSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113LSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861
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