TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129110
Played Sep 14Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101210115––––
David Sarganek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 60 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 24–33 David Sarganek Petr Vicherek has won 24 of their 57 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 12:01What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-33 in 57
Sarganek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1682 vs Sarganek 1564
Vicherek
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 60% vs Sarganek 40%
Vicherek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 60% vs Sarganek 30%
Vicherek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek +1 · Sarganek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vicherek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.91 / Sarganek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vicherek)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13129110
Vicherek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 54 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 40
Sarganek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 61 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVicherek1wins
AwaySarganek9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek33.3%1 of 3
AwaySarganek100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek3Sarganek7n = 10Sarganek took 7 of 10
S2Vicherek2Sarganek8n = 10Sarganek took 8 of 10
S3Vicherek4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S4Vicherek0Sarganek5n = 5Sarganek took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVicherekSarganekV − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match27.936.5−8.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 356 vs 248 / 47946.9%51.8%167 / 356 vs 248 / 479Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VicherekVicherek 1.91/Sarganek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vicherek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vicherek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek2710890D. Sarganek341211113
LAug 24 · 14:10P. Vicherek281111511D. Sarganek3611311113
WAug 20 · 20:45P. Vicherek331111113D. Sarganek238690
LAug 20 · 18:15P. Vicherek32117681D. Sarganek3741111113
LAug 18 · 19:45P. Vicherek177910D. Sarganek331111113
LAug 17 · 15:10P. Vicherek366911101D. Sarganek4111117123
LJul 30 · 19:40P. Vicherek3541111722D. Sarganek50119811113
LJul 28 · 18:15P. Vicherek199550D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 22 · 21:08P. Vicherek207670D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 22 · 18:15P. Vicherek32691431D. Sarganek45111112113
P. Vicherek10
WSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek2.0011911113R. Kowal1.73911591LSep 9 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111113P. Vicherek2.009730WSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113LSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.9110890D. Sarganek1.801211113WSep 8 · 16:40P. Vicherek1.801111113J. Rak1.911960WSep 8 · 16:10J. Rak1.80116100P. Vicherek1.911311123LSep 8 · 15:10P. Vicherek2.0013126362R. Niezgoda1.7311101111113LSep 8 · 13:40F. Sikora1.801111113P. Vicherek1.917650WSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113WSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 14 · 14:40F. Sikora1.731013981D. Sarganek2.00121111113LSep 9 · 21:10D. Sarganek2.357790R. Niezgoda1.481111113LSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113WSep 9 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.611110851D. Sarganek2.2091211113WSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.9110890D. Sarganek1.801211113LSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 20:10D. Sarganek2.203790M. Zaskodny1.611111113LSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 18:10R. Niezgoda1.6161111113D. Sarganek2.20119761WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113
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