TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129194
Played Sep 14Finished
David Sarganek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114811116811115
Marek Zaskodny
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Zaskodny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Marek Zaskodny below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 86 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Marek Zaskodny at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 24–20 Marek Zaskodny Marek Zaskodny has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:23What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zaskodny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-20 in 44
Sarganek
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1573 vs Zaskodny 1616
Zaskodny
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 40% vs Zaskodny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 30% vs Zaskodny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek +1 · Zaskodny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zaskodny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaskodny form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 2.00 / Zaskodny 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zaskodny)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13129194
Sarganek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 61 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Zaskodny1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 24 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek3wins
AwayZaskodny7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZaskodny leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZaskodny62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek2Zaskodny8n = 10Zaskodny took 8 of 10
S2Sarganek3Zaskodny7n = 10Zaskodny took 7 of 10
S3Sarganek2Zaskodny8n = 10Zaskodny took 8 of 10
S4Sarganek4Zaskodny1n = 5Sarganek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekZaskodnyS − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.036.5−5.5per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekZaskodnyBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 481 vs 119 / 28651.8%41.6%249 / 481 vs 119 / 286Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZaskodnySarganek 2.00/Zaskodny 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Zaskodny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 20:10D. Sarganek193790M. Zaskodny331111113
LAug 24 · 16:39D. Sarganek37119981M. Zaskodny4291111113
LAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek207490M. Zaskodny331111113
WAug 18 · 18:15D. Sarganek4691511113M. Zaskodny361113931
LAug 2 · 08:48D. Sarganek229580M. Zaskodny331111113
LAug 2 · 06:45D. Sarganek226970M. Zaskodny331111113
LAug 1 · 08:54D. Sarganek1710340M. Zaskodny341211113
WAug 1 · 06:15D. Sarganek3941311113M. Zaskodny391111981
WJul 30 · 21:25D. Sarganek49911711113M. Zaskodny3911411582
LJul 30 · 18:10D. Sarganek3911641172M. Zaskodny43411116113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 14 · 14:40F. Sikora1.731013981D. Sarganek2.00121111113LSep 14 · 14:10P. Vicherek1.911212113D. Sarganek1.80101050LSep 9 · 21:10D. Sarganek2.357790R. Niezgoda1.481111113LSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113WSep 9 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.611110851D. Sarganek2.2091211113WSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.9110890D. Sarganek1.801211113LSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 20:10D. Sarganek2.203790M. Zaskodny1.611111113LSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 18:10R. Niezgoda1.6161111113D. Sarganek2.20119761
M. Zaskodny10
LSep 14 · 15:10M. Zaskodny2.25111155112P. Vicherek1.57891111133WSep 14 · 13:40F. Sikora1.6111119932M. Zaskodny2.20161111113LSep 8 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.2241111113M. Zaskodny4.00113571WSep 8 · 20:10D. Sarganek2.203790M. Zaskodny1.611111113LSep 8 · 19:10M. Zaskodny3.406860R. Niezgoda1.301111113WSep 8 · 17:40A. Baros1.57861131M. Zaskodny2.2511114113WSep 1 · 16:40D. Skulina2.63911118102M. Zaskodny1.44119511123LSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113LSep 1 · 14:40M. Zaskodny2.10117881F. Chaloupka1.6781111113LSep 1 · 13:40M. Zaskodny1.671015111592D. Skulina2.101213817113
Upcoming Matches
D. Sarganek
M. Zaskodny
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.