TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158373
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511911––––
David Sarganek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:41 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 53 set 3, 9-11 — our read held David Sarganek at 61.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 7–10 David Sarganek Jan Gembala has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Sarganek
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1659 vs Sarganek 1640
Gembala
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 20% vs Sarganek 60%
Sarganek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 30% vs Sarganek 60%
Sarganek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +1 · Sarganek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Sarganek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 2.50 / Sarganek 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Sarganek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13158373
Gembala2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 30 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Sarganek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 61 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it84% 41 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala3wins
AwaySarganek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala42.9%3 of 7
AwaySarganek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala7Sarganek3n = 10Gembala took 7 of 10
S2Gembala3Sarganek7n = 10Sarganek took 7 of 10
S3Gembala3Sarganek7n = 10Sarganek took 7 of 10
S4Gembala1Sarganek4n = 5Sarganek took 4 of 5
S5Gembala1Sarganek2n = 3Sarganek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaSarganekG − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match32.837.3−4.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 382 vs 254 / 48854.5%52.1%208 / 382 vs 254 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekGembala 2.50/Sarganek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 19:10J. Gembala43116111142D. Sarganek49511139113
LJul 26 · 13:40J. Gembala235990D. Sarganek331111113
WJul 9 · 20:40J. Gembala331111113D. Sarganek183780
WJul 9 · 18:40J. Gembala45111175113D. Sarganek4789111182
LJul 2 · 21:15J. Gembala269980D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 2 · 18:40J. Gembala2787120D. Sarganek361111143
LJun 30 · 18:45J. Gembala23124521D. Sarganek43101111113
LMar 19 · 14:40J. Gembala31116951D. Sarganek4181111113
LFeb 12 · 11:15J. Gembala4411811772D. Sarganek46411911113
WJan 19 · 22:10J. Gembala331111113D. Sarganek279990
J. Gembala10
WSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros1.91991113152J. Gembala1.801111611173LSep 15 · 08:43J. Krupnik2.10771112113J. Gembala1.67111161072LSep 15 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5713101181J. Krupnik2.2515124113LSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113LSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113WSep 13 · 08:40J. Gembala1.6711611113J. Skalicky2.10611881LSep 13 · 07:40J. Gembala1.67913591F. Chaloupka2.10111111113WSep 13 · 06:40J. Gembala1.7311127113J. Skalicky2.009101171LSep 13 · 05:40J. Gembala1.5712710101T. Krenek2.25101112123LSep 11 · 09:10J. Gembala2.0075121172A. Vitasek1.731111106113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros2.2013980D. Sarganek1.611511113WSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081LSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113WSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690LSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752WSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros2.251198101D. Sarganek1.5781111123WSep 14 · 17:20P. Vicherek1.91971151D. Sarganek1.8011117113WSep 14 · 16:10D. Sarganek2.00118118113M. Zaskodny1.7341161152WSep 14 · 14:40F. Sikora1.731013981D. Sarganek2.00121111113LSep 14 · 14:10P. Vicherek2.101212113D. Sarganek1.67101050
Upcoming Matches
J. Gembala
D. Sarganek
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