TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158381
Played Sep 19Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91191111613111517
Jan Gembala
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 15-17
Point 113 set 5, 15-17 — our read held Jan Gembala at 54.0%
113 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 5–7 Jan Gembala Antonin Baros has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 08:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Gembala
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1634 vs Gembala 1649
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 40% vs Gembala 20%
Baros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 30% vs Gembala 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros -1 · Gembala -4
Gembala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baros) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 1.91 / Gembala 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Baros)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13158381
Baros1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Gembala1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 80 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it78% 64 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros4wins
AwayGembala6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGembala leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarosn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGembala66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros1Gembala9n = 10Gembala took 9 of 10
S2Baros7Gembala3n = 10Baros took 7 of 10
S3Baros5Gembala5n = 10split evenly
S4Baros5Gembala3n = 8Baros took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosGembalaB − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match34.538.7−4.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 395 vs 207 / 38246.6%54.2%184 / 395 vs 207 / 382Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosBaros 1.91/Gembala 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 9 · 17:35A. Baros28611471J. Gembala4211911113
LJul 9 · 16:35A. Baros28611471J. Gembala4211911113
LJul 9 · 16:10A. Baros1710340J. Gembala341211113
LJul 2 · 20:10A. Baros501011136102J. Gembala551291111123
WMar 20 · 17:15A. Baros47141111113J. Gembala361213831
LFeb 21 · 10:10A. Baros3971141162J. Gembala44114117113
WFeb 21 · 06:40A. Baros4121711113J. Gembala381115661
WFeb 14 · 21:10A. Baros3851111113J. Gembala32115791
LFeb 9 · 21:15A. Baros183960J. Gembala331111113
WFeb 2 · 21:59A. Baros3961111113J. Gembala31119561
A. Baros10
WSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 15 · 20:43A. Baros2.10113761P. Vicherek1.6751111113WSep 15 · 19:45P. Vicherek1.73613691A. Baros2.00111111113LSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102LSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros2.251198101D. Sarganek1.5781111123WSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 17:40A. Baros1.57861131M. Zaskodny2.2511114113LSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113
J. Gembala10
LSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113LSep 15 · 08:43J. Krupnik2.10771112113J. Gembala1.67111161072LSep 15 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5713101181J. Krupnik2.2515124113LSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113LSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113WSep 13 · 08:40J. Gembala1.6711611113J. Skalicky2.10611881LSep 13 · 07:40J. Gembala1.67913591F. Chaloupka2.10111111113WSep 13 · 06:40J. Gembala1.7311127113J. Skalicky2.009101171LSep 13 · 05:40J. Gembala1.5712710101T. Krenek2.25101112123LSep 11 · 09:10J. Gembala2.0075121172A. Vitasek1.731111106113
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