TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1172111111012511
David Sarganek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 81 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 26–34 David Sarganek Petr Vicherek has won 26 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:25What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-34 in 60
Sarganek
Correct
gap of 8 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1654 vs Sarganek 1659
Sarganek
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 40% vs Sarganek 60%
Sarganek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 40% vs Sarganek 60%
Sarganek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek -2 · Sarganek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sarganek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vicherek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.91 / Sarganek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sarganek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13168680
Vicherek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 54 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 41
Sarganek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it84% 43 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVicherek3wins
AwaySarganek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek50%2 of 4
AwaySarganek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S2Vicherek3Sarganek7n = 10Sarganek took 7 of 10
S3Vicherek6Sarganek4n = 10Vicherek took 6 of 10
S4Vicherek1Sarganek5n = 6Sarganek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVicherekSarganekV − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.935.9−4.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 365 vs 257 / 49347.1%52.1%172 / 365 vs 257 / 493Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekVicherek 1.91/Sarganek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek44561111113D. Sarganek4011116752
LSep 14 · 17:20P. Vicherek32971151D. Sarganek4011117113
WSep 14 · 14:10P. Vicherek351212113D. Sarganek25101050
LSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek2710890D. Sarganek341211113
LAug 24 · 14:10P. Vicherek281111511D. Sarganek3611311113
WAug 20 · 20:45P. Vicherek331111113D. Sarganek238690
LAug 20 · 18:15P. Vicherek32117681D. Sarganek3741111113
LAug 18 · 19:45P. Vicherek177910D. Sarganek331111113
LAug 17 · 15:10P. Vicherek366911101D. Sarganek4111117123
LJul 30 · 19:40P. Vicherek3541111722D. Sarganek50119811113
P. Vicherek10
LSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113LSep 21 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.678611161A. Baros2.1011118183WSep 15 · 20:43A. Baros2.10113761P. Vicherek1.6751111113LSep 15 · 19:45P. Vicherek1.73613691A. Baros2.00111111113WSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752LSep 15 · 17:45P. Vicherek1.91116118102R. Kowal1.80511111123LSep 14 · 17:20P. Vicherek1.91971151D. Sarganek1.8011117113LSep 14 · 15:40F. Sikora1.7381112113P. Vicherek2.001171051WSep 14 · 15:10M. Zaskodny2.25111155112P. Vicherek1.57891111133WSep 14 · 14:10P. Vicherek2.101212113D. Sarganek1.67101050
D. Sarganek10
LSep 21 · 19:10A. Baros2.20111119113D. Sarganek1.6111361152WSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022LSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros2.2013980D. Sarganek1.611511113WSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113WSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081LSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752WSep 14 · 17:20P. Vicherek1.91971151D. Sarganek1.8011117113LSep 14 · 14:10P. Vicherek2.101212113D. Sarganek1.67101050
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