TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
David Sarganek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
17152117111210112
Rene Kowal
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 98 set 5, 11-2 — our read held David Sarganek at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 26–25 Rene Kowal Rene Kowal has won 25 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:54What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-25 in 51
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1659 vs Kowal 1630
Sarganek
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 60% vs Kowal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 70% vs Kowal 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek -1 · Kowal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sarganek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 1.73 / Kowal 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sarganek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13168148
Sarganek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it84% 43 of 51
Kowal2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 34 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek7wins
AwayKowal3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek100%6 of 6
AwayKowal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek6Kowal4n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S2Sarganek5Kowal5n = 10split evenly
S3Sarganek4Kowal6n = 10Kowal took 6 of 10
S4Sarganek4Kowal0n = 4Sarganek took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekKowalS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.532.3+1.2per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 493 vs 148 / 29352.1%50.5%257 / 493 vs 148 / 293Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekSarganek 1.73/Kowal 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek49172712113R. Kowal491511111022
LSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek2486100R. Kowal341111123
WSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek45111112113R. Kowal361351081
LSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek196760R. Kowal331111113
WSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek331111113R. Kowal227690
LSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek185850R. Kowal331111113
WAug 4 · 15:40D. Sarganek3511112113R. Kowal31591161
WJul 22 · 18:45D. Sarganek331111113R. Kowal209830
WJul 21 · 19:40D. Sarganek46116414113R. Kowal41311111242
WJul 15 · 21:05D. Sarganek331111113R. Kowal247980
D. Sarganek10
WSep 21 · 19:40P. Vicherek1.91112111052D. Sarganek1.80711112113LSep 21 · 19:10A. Baros2.20111119113D. Sarganek1.6111361152LSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros2.2013980D. Sarganek1.611511113WSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113WSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081LSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113WSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690LSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752WSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros2.251198101D. Sarganek1.5781111123
R. Kowal10
WSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113WSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081WSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690WSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102WSep 15 · 17:45P. Vicherek1.91116118102R. Kowal1.80511111123LSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek2.0011911113R. Kowal1.73911591
Upcoming Matches
D. Sarganek
Nothing scheduled
R. Kowal
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