TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158366
Played Sep 19Finished
Rene Kowal
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412811119118––
Jan Gembala
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRene Kowal above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 84 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Rene Kowal at 54.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Rene Kowal 3–4 Jan Gembala Rene Kowal has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:37What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kowal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowal 1608 vs Gembala 1644
Gembala
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowal 40% vs Gembala 20%
Kowal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowal 40% vs Gembala 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowal -2 · Gembala -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowal 1.73 / Gembala 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gembala)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13158366
Kowal1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Gembala2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 30 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKowal3wins
AwayGembala4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderGembala leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowal50%3 of 6
AwayGembalan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowal6Gembala1n = 7Kowal took 6 of 7
S2Kowal2Gembala5n = 7Gembala took 5 of 7
S3Kowal3Gembala4n = 7Gembala took 4 of 7
S4Kowal4Gembala2n = 6Kowal took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKowalGembalaK − GBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match37.138.7−1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 289 vs 208 / 38350.2%54.3%145 / 289 vs 208 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalKowal 1.73/Gembala 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 9 · 20:10R. Kowal341111123J. Gembala2679100
LJul 2 · 18:10R. Kowal27113851J. Gembala3961111113
WJun 30 · 20:15R. Kowal3711114113J. Gembala30491161
LJun 8 · 21:15R. Kowal29851151J. Gembala3711114113
WJun 8 · 18:10R. Kowal4211513133J. Gembala4071111111
LJan 19 · 19:40R. Kowal4311871162J. Gembala49811118113
LDec 28 · 19:10R. Kowal4812891182J. Gembala501011117113
R. Kowal10
WSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123LSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081WSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690WSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102WSep 15 · 17:45P. Vicherek1.91116118102R. Kowal1.80511111123LSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek2.0011911113R. Kowal1.73911591WSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113
J. Gembala10
WSep 19 · 20:43A. Baros1.834611121J. Gembala1.8311119143LSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113WSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros1.91991113152J. Gembala1.801111611173LSep 15 · 08:43J. Krupnik2.10771112113J. Gembala1.67111161072LSep 15 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5713101181J. Krupnik2.2515124113LSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113LSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113WSep 13 · 08:40J. Gembala1.6711611113J. Skalicky2.10611881LSep 13 · 07:40J. Gembala1.67913591F. Chaloupka2.10111111113WSep 13 · 06:40J. Gembala1.7311127113J. Skalicky2.009101171
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