TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13161417
Played Sep 19Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4116111191214––
Jan Gembala
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 78 set 4, 12-14
78 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 5–8 Jan Gembala Antonin Baros has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Gembala beat Baros 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gembala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 1.83 / Gembala 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gembala)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13161417
Baros1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Gembala1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros3wins
AwayGembala7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGembala leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarosn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGembala77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros1Gembala9n = 10Gembala took 9 of 10
S2Baros6Gembala4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S3Baros5Gembala5n = 10split evenly
S4Baros5Gembala3n = 8Baros took 5 of 8
S5Baros0Gembala3n = 3Gembala took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosGembalaB − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.341.2−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 396 vs 208 / 38446.2%54.2%183 / 396 vs 208 / 384Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaBaros 1.83/Gembala 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros57991113152J. Gembala561111611173
LJul 9 · 17:35A. Baros28611471J. Gembala4211911113
LJul 9 · 16:35A. Baros28611471J. Gembala4211911113
LJul 9 · 16:10A. Baros1710340J. Gembala341211113
LJul 2 · 20:10A. Baros501011136102J. Gembala551291111123
WMar 20 · 17:15A. Baros47141111113J. Gembala361213831
LFeb 21 · 10:10A. Baros3971141162J. Gembala44114117113
WFeb 21 · 06:40A. Baros4121711113J. Gembala381115661
WFeb 14 · 21:10A. Baros3851111113J. Gembala32115791
LFeb 9 · 21:15A. Baros183960J. Gembala331111113
A. Baros10
LSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros2.2013980D. Sarganek1.611511113WSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros1.91991113152J. Gembala1.801111611173LSep 15 · 20:43A. Baros2.10113761P. Vicherek1.6751111113WSep 15 · 19:45P. Vicherek1.73613691A. Baros2.00111111113LSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102LSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros2.251198101D. Sarganek1.5781111123WSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880
J. Gembala10
LSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113WSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros1.91991113152J. Gembala1.801111611173LSep 15 · 08:43J. Krupnik2.10771112113J. Gembala1.67111161072LSep 15 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5713101181J. Krupnik2.2515124113LSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113LSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113WSep 13 · 08:40J. Gembala1.6711611113J. Skalicky2.10611881LSep 13 · 07:40J. Gembala1.67913591F. Chaloupka2.10111111113WSep 13 · 06:40J. Gembala1.7311127113J. Skalicky2.009101171
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