TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111113116911115
David Sarganek
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 79 set 5, 11-5 — our read held David Sarganek at 63.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 24–39 David Sarganek Antonin Baros has won 24 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-39 in 63
Sarganek
Wrong
gap of 15 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1623 vs Sarganek 1671
Sarganek
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 40% vs Sarganek 80%
Sarganek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 40% vs Sarganek 70%
Sarganek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +1 · Sarganek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sarganek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.20 / Sarganek 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Sarganek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13168736
Baros2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Sarganek1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it84% 43 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros4wins
AwaySarganek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros66.7%4 of 6
AwaySarganek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros6Sarganek4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S2Baros3Sarganek7n = 10Sarganek took 7 of 10
S3Baros5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S4Baros1Sarganek2n = 3Sarganek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosSarganekB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.633.1−1.5per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 398 vs 257 / 49246.2%52.2%184 / 398 vs 257 / 492Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekBaros 2.20/Sarganek 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros3013980D. Sarganek371511113
LSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros381198101D. Sarganek4281111123
WSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros3711311123D. Sarganek367118101
WSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros341211113D. Sarganek2610880
WAug 20 · 20:15A. Baros361111143D. Sarganek2567120
LAug 18 · 21:14A. Baros2110560D. Sarganek341211113
LAug 18 · 19:15A. Baros4511611892D. Sarganek45811411113
WJul 22 · 20:15A. Baros341111123D. Sarganek2037100
LJul 21 · 19:10A. Baros209650D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 18 · 19:15A. Baros218760D. Sarganek331111113
A. Baros10
LSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.678611161A. Baros2.1011118183LSep 19 · 20:43A. Baros1.834611121J. Gembala1.8311119143LSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros2.2013980D. Sarganek1.611511113WSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros1.91991113152J. Gembala1.801111611173LSep 15 · 20:43A. Baros2.10113761P. Vicherek1.6751111113WSep 15 · 19:45P. Vicherek1.73613691A. Baros2.00111111113LSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102LSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros2.251198101D. Sarganek1.5781111123
D. Sarganek10
WSep 21 · 19:40P. Vicherek1.91112111052D. Sarganek1.80711112113WSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022LSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros2.2013980D. Sarganek1.611511113WSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113WSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081LSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113WSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690LSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752WSep 15 · 18:15A. Baros2.251198101D. Sarganek1.5781111123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.