TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Adamus vs Marian Lebek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.71
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117119119––
Marian Lebek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:07 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
811117119119––
H2H Pawel Adamus 10–8 Marian Lebek Marian Lebek has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Adamus
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1407 vs Lebek 1393
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Lebek 20%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Lebek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -3 · Lebek -1
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.71 / Lebek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13181157
Adamus1.71
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 209 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it99% 102 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it79% 160 of 203
Lebek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 92 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayLebek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%3 of 3
AwayLebek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Lebek7n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Adamus5Lebek5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S4Adamus2Lebek2n = 4split evenly
S5Adamus2Lebek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusLebekA − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.437.0−3.6per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 687 vs 845 / 145055.2%58.3%379 / 687 vs 845 / 1450Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.71/Lebek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 03:10P. Adamus49111278113M. Lebek47810111172
LSep 16 · 22:50P. Adamus2513840M. Lebek371511113
LSep 10 · 06:10P. Adamus4348111192M. Lebek47111177113
WSep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus331111113M. Lebek195680
WAug 26 · 21:10P. Adamus331111113M. Lebek236980
LAug 20 · 03:10P. Adamus4681151392M. Lebek531191111113
LJul 9 · 03:10P. Adamus126330M. Lebek331111113
LJun 11 · 06:45P. Adamus239950M. Lebek331111113
LFeb 10 · 18:10P. Adamus209380M. Lebek331111113
WAug 3 · 23:10P. Adamus50613128113M. Lebek451111101122
P. Adamus10
LSep 23 · 04:00M. Sikon2.5013711113P. Adamus1.471111851LSep 23 · 01:10P. Adamus1.8568121182P. Kurek1.801111109113LSep 23 · 24:00P. Adamus1.651198141M. Sikon2.1091111163LSep 22 · 22:25P. Adamus1.751110231M. Tkocz1.9551211113WSep 22 · 21:10P. Adamus1.8291111113M. Paszkiewicz1.88118691WSep 21 · 04:20P. Adamus1.47111311123M. Baron2.219158101WSep 21 · 03:05P. Adamus1.56111111113W. Urban2.05813471LSep 21 · 01:55P. Adamus1.87712981P. Kurek1.83111011113LSep 21 · 24:45G. Marud1.85971111113P. Adamus1.8511115932WSep 20 · 23:55P. Adamus1.611111115133O. Vincenec2.15139511112
M. Lebek10
LSep 23 · 03:35R. Idaczyk2.601111116113M. Lebek1.4491341172LSep 23 · 01:35M. Lebek1.4291090M. Paszkiewicz2.481112113WSep 23 · 24:25P. Kurek2.1531171162M. Lebek1.60118118113LSep 22 · 23:10M. Sikon2.7511169113M. Lebek1.319141161LSep 22 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.80111176113M. Lebek1.9098111192LSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660WSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010890M. Lebek1.271211113LSep 18 · 06:25M. Lebek2.10118851P. Polok1.6551111113WSep 18 · 04:50M. Lebek1.5711119133Y. Fomin2.209411111WSep 18 · 04:00M. Adamus2.25911571M. Lebek1.5511811113
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