TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Marian Lebek 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119118711611119
Marian Lebek
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
119118711611119
H2H Marek Tkocz 49–60 Marian Lebek Marek Tkocz has won 49 of their 109 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-60 in 109
Lebek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 109, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1424 vs Lebek 1422
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 100% vs Lebek 60%
Tkocz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 60% vs Lebek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +6 · Lebek -1
Tkocz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.80 / Lebek 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkocz)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13180083
Tkocz1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 288 of 431
Up 2–0, closes it95% 161 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it85% 236 of 279
Lebek1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 92 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkocz5wins
AwayLebek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkoczn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLebek62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz2Lebek8n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S2Tkocz6Lebek4n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S3Tkocz6Lebek4n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S4Tkocz4Lebek1n = 5Tkocz took 4 of 5
S5Tkocz1Lebek2n = 3Lebek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkoczLebekT − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.834.8+1.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime782 / 1178 vs 852 / 145966.4%58.4%782 / 1178 vs 852 / 1459Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.80/Lebek 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 21:10M. Tkocz4151161272M. Lebek501171110113
LSep 15 · 22:50M. Tkocz206680M. Lebek331111113
WSep 10 · 22:25M. Tkocz47111213113M. Lebek3713101131
WSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz45711115113M. Lebek4211851172
LSep 4 · 02:20M. Tkocz227960M. Lebek331111113
WSep 1 · 22:00M. Tkocz4291111113M. Lebek27114571
LAug 27 · 21:35M. Tkocz2878130M. Lebek371111153
WAug 25 · 23:10M. Tkocz331111113M. Lebek228770
LAug 20 · 23:35M. Tkocz47119111152M. Lebek47131148113
WAug 19 · 24:25M. Tkocz331111113M. Lebek204880
M. Tkocz10
WSep 22 · 20:00M. Tkocz1.101111113K. Kowalski4.502450WSep 22 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.57611611113R. Gajda2.2011611942WSep 22 · 17:35M. Tkocz1.7511911113P. Kaczynski1.95611881WSep 22 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.659550M. Tkocz1.401111113WSep 22 · 15:35M. Tkocz1.651161112113P. Kurek2.0541171472WSep 18 · 02:20M. Adamus2.45661161M. Tkocz1.4411118113LSep 18 · 01:35P. Polok1.731111123M. Tkocz1.9255100LSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981LSep 17 · 22:50G. Jurowicz2.50111211113M. Tkocz1.45714451LSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272
M. Lebek10
LSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660WSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010890M. Lebek1.271211113LSep 18 · 06:25M. Lebek2.10118851P. Polok1.6551111113WSep 18 · 04:50M. Lebek1.5711119133Y. Fomin2.209411111WSep 18 · 04:00M. Adamus2.25911571M. Lebek1.5511811113WSep 18 · 02:45M. Lebek2.141112113P. Polok1.5861070LSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113LSep 18 · 24:00M. Lebek1.65811891M. Adamus2.1011811113LSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113WSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272
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