TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Adamus vs Marek Tkocz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1151012211311––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
1151012211311––
H2H Pawel Adamus 0–10 Marek Tkocz Pawel Adamus has won 0 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-10 in 10
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 10 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1443 vs Tkocz 1435
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Tkocz 100%
Tkocz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Tkocz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +3 · Tkocz +7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.75 / Tkocz 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13180705
Adamus1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 209 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it99% 102 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it79% 160 of 203
Tkocz1.95
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 19 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus0wins
AwayTkocz10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkocz100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus2Tkocz8n = 10Tkocz took 8 of 10
S2Adamus0Tkocz10n = 10Tkocz took 10 of 10
S3Adamus1Tkocz9n = 10Tkocz took 9 of 10
S4Adamus2Tkocz1n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusTkoczA − TBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match24.736.2−11.5per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 684 vs 783 / 117955.4%66.4%379 / 684 vs 783 / 1179Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.75/Tkocz 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 22 · 04:00P. Adamus178450M. Tkocz331111113
LJan 25 · 03:45P. Adamus186660M. Tkocz331111113
LJan 25 · 24:05P. Adamus32991131M. Tkocz4111118113
LJul 24 · 04:25P. Adamus3711351172M. Tkocz44711114113
LJul 18 · 02:45P. Adamus4111911192M. Tkocz45711115113
LJul 15 · 07:35P. Adamus92160M. Tkocz331111113
LJul 6 · 23:35P. Adamus215970M. Tkocz331111113
LJul 6 · 17:35P. Adamus279990M. Tkocz331111113
LJul 6 · 03:20P. Adamus2138100M. Tkocz341111123
LJul 1 · 03:35P. Adamus249690M. Tkocz331111113
P. Adamus10
WSep 22 · 21:10P. Adamus1.8291111113M. Paszkiewicz1.88118691WSep 21 · 04:20P. Adamus1.47111311123M. Baron2.219158101WSep 21 · 03:05P. Adamus1.56111111113W. Urban2.05813471LSep 21 · 01:55P. Adamus1.87712981P. Kurek1.83111011113LSep 21 · 24:45G. Marud1.85971111113P. Adamus1.8511115932WSep 20 · 23:55P. Adamus1.611111115133O. Vincenec2.15139511112LSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:05P. Adamus1.661112113W. Urban2.1041060WSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861LSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762
M. Tkocz10
WSep 22 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.80111176113M. Lebek1.9098111192WSep 22 · 20:00M. Tkocz1.101111113K. Kowalski4.502450WSep 22 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.57611611113R. Gajda2.2011611942WSep 22 · 17:35M. Tkocz1.7511911113P. Kaczynski1.95611881WSep 22 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.659550M. Tkocz1.401111113WSep 22 · 15:35M. Tkocz1.651161112113P. Kurek2.0541171472WSep 18 · 02:20M. Adamus2.45661161M. Tkocz1.4411118113LSep 18 · 01:35P. Polok1.731111123M. Tkocz1.9255100LSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981LSep 17 · 22:50G. Jurowicz2.50111211113M. Tkocz1.45714451
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