TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Pawel Kurek 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1146111171214117
Pawel Kurek
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:33 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1146111171214117
H2H Marek Tkocz 3–0 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:33What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1378 vs Kurek 1366
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 20% vs Kurek 40%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 50% vs Kurek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +1 · Kurek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (20%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.65 / Kurek 2.05
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Tkocz)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13175688
Tkocz1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 288 of 431
Up 2–0, closes it95% 161 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it85% 236 of 279
Kurek2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 127 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTkocz3wins
AwayKurek0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTkocz leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz2Kurek1n = 3Tkocz took 2 of 3
S2Tkocz2Kurek1n = 3Tkocz took 2 of 3
S3Tkocz2Kurek1n = 3Tkocz took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricTkoczKurekT − KBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match42.028.0+14.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime777 / 1173 vs 430 / 85366.2%50.4%777 / 1173 vs 430 / 853Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.65/Kurek 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 19 · 01:10M. Tkocz331111113P. Kurek134720
WJul 9 · 21:35M. Tkocz4211911113P. Kurek31911651
WMar 1 · 08:10M. Tkocz51911911113P. Kurek4011711382
M. Tkocz10
WSep 22 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.659550M. Tkocz1.401111113WSep 18 · 02:20M. Adamus2.45661161M. Tkocz1.4411118113LSep 18 · 01:35P. Polok1.731111123M. Tkocz1.9255100LSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981LSep 17 · 22:50G. Jurowicz2.50111211113M. Tkocz1.45714451LSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272WSep 17 · 20:20W. Pytlas2.191161110102M. Tkocz1.56611612123WSep 17 · 19:35P. Zemla1.79913111122M. Tkocz1.851111139113WSep 17 · 17:35W. Jozala4.1041111692M. Tkocz1.17118911113LSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182
P. Kurek10
LSep 22 · 04:40M. Sikon1.81119513113P. Kurek1.90911111192LSep 22 · 03:55P. Slosarczyk2.3911911113P. Kurek1.41911671WSep 22 · 01:30M. Baron2.15711631P. Kurek1.6311711113LSep 22 · 24:50S. Szostok1.591111133P. Kurek1.9979110WSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113LSep 21 · 22:40M. Sikon2.351141011123P. Kurek1.50711126102WSep 21 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk2.40118551P. Kurek1.5091111113WSep 21 · 19:55M. Baron2.108211101P. Kurek1.6711114123LSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871
Upcoming Matches
M. Tkocz
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P. Kurek
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