TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Slosarczyk vs Pawel Kurek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Pawel Slosarczyk
Home
2.39
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911116117––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.41
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
119911116117––
H2H Pawel Slosarczyk 10–14 Pawel Kurek Pawel Slosarczyk has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kurek beat Slosarczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (63%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slosarczyk 1235 vs Kurek 1393
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slosarczyk 20% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slosarczyk 40% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slosarczyk -2 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kurek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlosarczyk 2.39 / Kurek 1.41
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kurek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13172763
Slosarczyk2.39
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 106 of 346
Down 0–1, comes back13% 27 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 125
Kurek1.41
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 217 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it83% 150 of 180
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlosarczyk4wins
AwayKurek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlosarczyk42.9%3 of 7
AwayKurek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slosarczyk7Kurek3n = 10Slosarczyk took 7 of 10
S2Slosarczyk5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S3Slosarczyk3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Slosarczyk3Kurek5n = 8Kurek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlosarczykKurekS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.539.3−2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlosarczykKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 892 vs 430 / 85138%50.5%339 / 892 vs 430 / 851Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekSlosarczyk 2.39/Kurek 1.41
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Slosarczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk29118551P. Kurek4291111113
WSep 4 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk4281111123P. Kurek341149101
LSep 4 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk386131091P. Kurek45111112113
LAug 16 · 05:10P. Slosarczyk268990P. Kurek331111113
LAug 1 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk43131154102P. Kurek5811111311123
WAug 1 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk4211137113P. Kurek378111171
WJul 15 · 14:20P. Slosarczyk341112113P. Kurek2791080
LJul 15 · 08:10P. Slosarczyk351110591P. Kurek3511211113
LJul 13 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk33145681P. Kurek45121111113
WJul 13 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk4311118133P. Kurek376911111
P. Slosarczyk10
LSep 22 · 05:05G. Marud1.57871111113P. Slosarczyk2.2011119972LSep 22 · 02:10S. Szostok1.4211711113P. Slosarczyk2.67211861LSep 22 · 01:10M. Sikon1.6881111113P. Slosarczyk1.87117691WSep 21 · 23:50M. Baron1.58811612122P. Slosarczyk2.021181110143LSep 21 · 23:05S. Szostok1.411111113P. Slosarczyk2.605460LSep 21 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk2.40118551P. Kurek1.5091111113WSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113LSep 21 · 19:30M. Sikon1.8011115113P. Slosarczyk1.90791181LSep 21 · 17:55M. Baron1.70111113113P. Slosarczyk2.00571591WSep 21 · 02:00M. Sikon1.8061060P. Slosarczyk1.901112113
P. Kurek10
LSep 22 · 04:40M. Sikon1.81119513113P. Kurek1.90911111192WSep 22 · 01:30M. Baron2.15711631P. Kurek1.6311711113LSep 22 · 24:50S. Szostok1.591111133P. Kurek1.9979110WSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113LSep 21 · 22:40M. Sikon2.351141011123P. Kurek1.50711126102WSep 21 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk2.40118551P. Kurek1.5091111113WSep 21 · 19:55M. Baron2.108211101P. Kurek1.6711114123LSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871WSep 21 · 04:40W. Urban1.852550P. Kurek1.801111113
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