TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Marud vs Pawel Slosarczyk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811711119119117
Pawel Slosarczyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
811711119119117
H2H Grzegorz Marud 6–6 Pawel Slosarczyk Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Slosarczyk beat Marud 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:20What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1381 vs Slosarczyk 1252
Marud
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 40% vs Slosarczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 40% vs Slosarczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Slosarczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.57 / Slosarczyk 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Marud)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13172760
Marud1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it87% 80 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it70% 107 of 152
Slosarczyk2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 108 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back13% 27 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud5wins
AwaySlosarczyk5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud66.7%4 of 6
AwaySlosarczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud6Slosarczyk4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S2Marud6Slosarczyk4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S3Marud4Slosarczyk6n = 10Slosarczyk took 6 of 10
S4Marud3Slosarczyk3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudSlosarczykM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.332.7+1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudSlosarczykBasisWin rate · lifetime655 / 1376 vs 340 / 89347.6%38.1%655 / 1376 vs 340 / 893Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.57/Slosarczyk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud371111961P. Slosarczyk4413911113
WAug 25 · 01:10G. Marud45111112113P. Slosarczyk341371041
LAug 24 · 19:30G. Marud175660P. Slosarczyk331111113
WAug 24 · 01:30G. Marud44111111113P. Slosarczyk33661381
LAug 23 · 19:30G. Marud229940P. Slosarczyk331111113
LJul 20 · 04:40G. Marud331175101P. Slosarczyk4281111123
WJul 19 · 22:40G. Marud3712311113P. Slosarczyk331011661
LDec 31 · 02:10G. Marud4211117672P. Slosarczyk43821111113
WSep 17 · 24:00G. Marud331111113P. Slosarczyk153930
WJun 24 · 22:50G. Marud331111113P. Slosarczyk175570
G. Marud10
LSep 22 · 03:30G. Marud2.09111377112S. Szostok1.536111111133WSep 22 · 01:50G. Marud1.751112311113M. Sikon1.9571411762WSep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.91611911113M. Baron1.7811911882LSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113LSep 21 · 22:20M. Baron1.951111113G. Marud1.756950LSep 21 · 21:30S. Szostok1.571115113G. Marud2.0261370LSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113WSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061WSep 21 · 05:05G. Marud1.571111113O. Vincenec2.031580
P. Slosarczyk10
WSep 22 · 03:55P. Slosarczyk2.3911911113P. Kurek1.41911671LSep 22 · 02:10S. Szostok1.4211711113P. Slosarczyk2.67211861LSep 22 · 01:10M. Sikon1.6881111113P. Slosarczyk1.87117691WSep 21 · 23:50M. Baron1.58811612122P. Slosarczyk2.021181110143LSep 21 · 23:05S. Szostok1.411111113P. Slosarczyk2.605460LSep 21 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk2.40118551P. Kurek1.5091111113WSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113LSep 21 · 19:30M. Sikon1.8011115113P. Slosarczyk1.90791181LSep 21 · 17:55M. Baron1.70111113113P. Slosarczyk2.00571591WSep 21 · 02:00M. Sikon1.8061060P. Slosarczyk1.901112113
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