TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Marud vs Mateusz Sikon 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171214311117116
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:22 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
93 points played in total.
Set by set
1171214311117116
H2H Grzegorz Marud 6–7 Mateusz Sikon Grzegorz Marud has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Sikon beat Marud 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:22What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1367 vs Sikon 1381
Sikon
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 20% vs Sikon 80%
Sikon
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 40% vs Sikon 60%
Sikon
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +1 · Sikon +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.75 / Sikon 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marud)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13172769
Marud1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 131 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it71% 105 of 149
Sikon1.95
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 101 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 27 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud5wins
AwaySikon5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud71.4%5 of 7
AwaySikon100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud7Sikon3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S2Marud7Sikon3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S3Marud3Sikon7n = 10Sikon took 7 of 10
S4Marud6Sikon3n = 9Marud took 6 of 9
S5Marud0Sikon3n = 3Sikon took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudSikonM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.036.1+4.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime655 / 1376 vs 175 / 44247.6%39.6%655 / 1376 vs 175 / 442Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.75/Sikon 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 18:20G. Marud361191061M. Sikon4281112113
WSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud3811115113M. Sikon31581171
WSep 7 · 20:20G. Marud331111113M. Sikon229850
WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud46111011143M. Sikon353128121
LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud45710111162M. Sikon45111265113
LSep 1 · 24:50G. Marud50111191182M. Sikon47841113113
LAug 31 · 17:30G. Marud35811971M. Sikon3911611113
LAug 4 · 21:45G. Marud45811511102M. Sikon43111118123
WAug 4 · 17:45G. Marud4111118113M. Sikon32581181
WJul 28 · 03:30G. Marud4111118113M. Sikon25741131
G. Marud10
WSep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.91611911113M. Baron1.7811911882LSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113LSep 21 · 22:20M. Baron1.951111113G. Marud1.756950LSep 21 · 21:30S. Szostok1.571115113G. Marud2.0261370LSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113WSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061WSep 21 · 05:05G. Marud1.571111113O. Vincenec2.031580WSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101LSep 21 · 02:20G. Marud1.655860W. Urban1.901111113
M. Sikon10
WSep 22 · 01:10M. Sikon1.6881111113P. Slosarczyk1.87117691LSep 22 · 24:10M. Sikon2.65116891S. Szostok1.3381111113WSep 21 · 22:40M. Sikon2.351141011123P. Kurek1.50711126102WSep 21 · 21:05M. Baron1.80117138112M. Sikon1.858111111133WSep 21 · 20:20S. Szostok1.571211101162M. Sikon2.20144123113WSep 21 · 19:30M. Sikon1.8011115113P. Slosarczyk1.90791181WSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061LSep 21 · 02:00M. Sikon1.8061060P. Slosarczyk1.901112113LSep 21 · 24:45M. Sikon1.90812981O. Sokolowski1.80111011113LSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113
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