TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Sebastian Szostok vs Grzegorz Marud 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161513117––––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
2.02
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:15 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
63 points played in total.
Set by set
1161513117––––
H2H Sebastian Szostok 27–19 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 19 of their 46 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (56%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-19 in 46
Szostok
Correct
gap of 8 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1411 vs Marud 1415
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 40% vs Marud 60%
Marud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 50% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -2 · Marud -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.57 / Marud 2.02
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Szostok)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13168921
Szostok1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 331 of 514
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 215 of 270
Marud2.02
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 131 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back22% 38 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok5wins
AwayMarud5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok75%3 of 4
AwayMarud66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S2Szostok7Marud3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S3Szostok5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S4Szostok6Marud3n = 9Szostok took 6 of 9
S5Szostok1Marud3n = 4Marud took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokMarudS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.740.3+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime914 / 1577 vs 654 / 137558%47.6%914 / 1577 vs 654 / 1375Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.57/Marud 2.02
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok49771211122G. Marud511111105143
WSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok46511811113G. Marud4011811642
LSep 1 · 23:20S. Szostok56913111492G. Marud561111716113
LSep 1 · 17:20S. Szostok32951171G. Marud4111118113
WAug 31 · 03:05S. Szostok4161113113G. Marud401191191
WAug 30 · 21:05S. Szostok4011117113G. Marud30671161
LJul 21 · 16:25S. Szostok381189101G. Marud4281111123
WJul 13 · 24:20S. Szostok331111113G. Marud268990
WJul 12 · 20:20S. Szostok4213117113G. Marud341181141
LMay 26 · 02:20S. Szostok4081141162G. Marud43114116113
S. Szostok10
LSep 21 · 20:20S. Szostok1.571211101162M. Sikon2.20144123113LSep 21 · 18:45S. Szostok1.52791211132M. Baron2.301111108153WSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871LSep 21 · 02:45R. Ogon4.55111211153S. Szostok1.107144131WSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120WSep 21 · 24:25P. Slosarczyk2.15115941S. Szostok1.6091111113WSep 20 · 23:10O. Sokolowski2.607119151S. Szostok1.4111511173LSep 20 · 21:35M. Sikon2.371171111113S. Szostok1.5271181382WSep 20 · 20:45P. Slosarczyk2.8591260S. Szostok1.361114113LSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183
G. Marud10
LSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113WSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061WSep 21 · 05:05G. Marud1.571111113O. Vincenec2.031580WSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101LSep 21 · 02:20G. Marud1.655860W. Urban1.901111113WSep 21 · 24:45G. Marud1.85971111113P. Adamus1.8511115932LSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113WSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113
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