TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214115111811115
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
1214115111811115
H2H Grzegorz Marud 4–8 Pawel Kurek Grzegorz Marud has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1423 vs Kurek 1399
Marud
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Kurek 40%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Kurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.86 / Kurek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13168356
Marud1.86
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 131 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back22% 38 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 103
Kurek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 217 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it83% 150 of 180
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud4wins
AwayKurek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud33.3%2 of 6
AwayKurek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud6Kurek4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S2Marud7Kurek3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S3Marud4Kurek6n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S4Marud4Kurek3n = 7Marud took 4 of 7
S5Marud1Kurek5n = 6Kurek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudKurekM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.840.6+0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime653 / 1374 vs 427 / 84547.5%50.5%653 / 1374 vs 427 / 845Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekMarud 1.86/Kurek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1911350P. Kurek351311113
LSep 20 · 19:10G. Marud3911611742P. Kurek49911711113
WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud331111113P. Kurek166550
LSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud54116912162P. Kurek566111110183
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud4071111113P. Kurek28116651
LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud4281191132P. Kurek50118119113
LAug 4 · 24:20G. Marud5316128892P. Kurek5714101111113
WAug 3 · 20:20G. Marud534111214123P. Kurek511141412102
LAug 3 · 24:20G. Marud4211114882P. Kurek45481111113
WAug 2 · 20:20G. Marud331111113P. Kurek197750
G. Marud10
LSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113LSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061WSep 21 · 05:05G. Marud1.571111113O. Vincenec2.031580WSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101LSep 21 · 02:20G. Marud1.655860W. Urban1.901111113WSep 21 · 24:45G. Marud1.85971111113P. Adamus1.8511115932LSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113WSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113LSep 20 · 20:45G. Marud1.661211781O. Vincenec2.05101311113
P. Kurek10
WSep 21 · 19:55M. Baron2.108211101P. Kurek1.6711114123LSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871WSep 21 · 04:40W. Urban1.852550P. Kurek1.801111113LSep 21 · 03:55O. Vincenec2.151112113P. Kurek1.6371060WSep 21 · 01:55P. Adamus1.87712981P. Kurek1.83111011113LSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560WSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113LSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651WSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec1.901110111152P. Kurek1.75812139113LSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
Sep 21 · 21:30G. Marud2.02S. Szostok1.57—Sep 21 · 22:20G. Marud1.66M. Baron2.05—Sep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86P. Kurek1.69—Sep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.59M. Baron2.00—Sep 22 · 01:50G. Marud1.49M. Sikon2.19—Sep 22 · 03:30G. Marud2.09S. Szostok1.53—Sep 22 · 05:05G. Marud1.45P. Slosarczyk2.27—Sep 22 · 15:00G. Marud—M. Adamus——
P. Kurek
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