TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8112111141012––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:26 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
8112111141012––
H2H Mariusz Baron 4–14 Pawel Kurek Mariusz Baron has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-14 in 18
Kurek
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1328 vs Kurek 1389
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 60% vs Kurek 40%
Baron
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 50% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +2 · Kurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.10 / Kurek 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kurek)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13168418
Baron2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 189 of 468
Down 0–1, comes back25% 64 of 252
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Kurek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 217 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it83% 150 of 180
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron3wins
AwayKurek7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaronn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKurek87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron2Kurek8n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S2Baron5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S3Baron3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Baron3Kurek2n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronKurekB − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.733.9−2.2per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime873 / 1823 vs 426 / 84447.9%50.5%873 / 1823 vs 426 / 844Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekBaron 2.10/Kurek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron331111113P. Kurek187560
LSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron4681191172P. Kurek44115116113
WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron4311813113P. Kurek325111151
LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron184680P. Kurek331111113
LAug 14 · 23:20M. Baron33711781P. Kurek3811511113
LAug 14 · 17:20M. Baron258980P. Kurek331111113
LAug 3 · 04:20M. Baron2491050P. Kurek341112113
WAug 2 · 18:45M. Baron4071111113P. Kurek32117951
LJul 3 · 15:00M. Baron219570P. Kurek331111113
LJun 16 · 23:45M. Baron347111061P. Kurek4211812113
M. Baron10
WSep 21 · 18:45S. Szostok1.52791211132M. Baron2.301111108153WSep 21 · 17:55M. Baron1.70111113113P. Slosarczyk2.00571591LSep 21 · 04:20P. Adamus1.47111311123M. Baron2.219158101LSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101WSep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.881111123O. Vincenec1.6748100WSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560LSep 21 · 24:20W. Urban1.78111116113M. Baron1.9311571192LSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113WSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102
P. Kurek10
LSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871WSep 21 · 04:40W. Urban1.852550P. Kurek1.801111113LSep 21 · 03:55O. Vincenec2.151112113P. Kurek1.6371060WSep 21 · 01:55P. Adamus1.87712981P. Kurek1.83111011113LSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560WSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113LSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651WSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec1.901110111152P. Kurek1.75812139113LSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861
Upcoming Matches
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