TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71191112101181315
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
107 points played in total.
Set by set
71191112101181315
H2H Sebastian Szostok 31–20 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 20 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-20 in 51
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 11 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1441 vs Baron 1312
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 80% vs Baron 60%
Szostok
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 60% vs Baron 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +1 · Baron +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.52 / Baron 2.30
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Szostok)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13168360
Szostok1.52
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 331 of 514
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 215 of 270
Baron2.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 189 of 468
Down 0–1, comes back25% 64 of 252
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok6wins
AwayBaron4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok66.7%2 of 3
AwayBaron42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Szostok6Baron4n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S3Szostok5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S4Szostok5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S5Szostok4Baron1n = 5Szostok took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokBaronS − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match46.544.7+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime914 / 1576 vs 872 / 182258%47.9%914 / 1576 vs 872 / 1822Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.52/Baron 2.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.4%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 15:30S. Szostok3610101241M. Baron45121210113
WSep 8 · 09:30S. Szostok4313127113M. Baron4111101191
WAug 24 · 13:05S. Szostok5711141110113M. Baron4481631252
LAug 24 · 06:55S. Szostok4671111982M. Baron49118811113
WAug 14 · 21:00S. Szostok541211911113M. Baron4714711872
LAug 14 · 16:35S. Szostok398111191M. Baron4411913113
WAug 10 · 01:55S. Szostok51911911113M. Baron3911711552
WAug 9 · 19:55S. Szostok618121217123M. Baron6011141015102
LAug 7 · 13:30S. Szostok33115981M. Baron4181111113
WAug 7 · 07:20S. Szostok45101111133M. Baron371295111
S. Szostok10
WSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871LSep 21 · 02:45R. Ogon4.55111211153S. Szostok1.107144131WSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120WSep 21 · 24:25P. Slosarczyk2.15115941S. Szostok1.6091111113WSep 20 · 23:10O. Sokolowski2.607119151S. Szostok1.4111511173LSep 20 · 21:35M. Sikon2.371171111113S. Szostok1.5271181382WSep 20 · 20:45P. Slosarczyk2.8591260S. Szostok1.361114113LSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183WSep 20 · 18:25R. Ogon4.55811111132S. Szostok1.10118137113LSep 20 · 17:10O. Sokolowski2.6011712153S. Szostok1.4131110131
M. Baron10
WSep 21 · 17:55M. Baron1.70111113113P. Slosarczyk2.00571591LSep 21 · 04:20P. Adamus1.47111311123M. Baron2.219158101LSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101WSep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.881111123O. Vincenec1.6748100WSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560LSep 21 · 24:20W. Urban1.78111116113M. Baron1.9311571192LSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113WSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102WSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762
Upcoming Matches
S. Szostok
Sep 21 · 20:20S. Szostok1.41M. Sikon2.60—Sep 21 · 21:30S. Szostok1.57G. Marud2.02—Sep 21 · 23:05S. Szostok1.41P. Slosarczyk2.60—Sep 22 · 24:10S. Szostok1.33M. Sikon2.65—Sep 22 · 24:50S. Szostok1.59P. Kurek1.99—Sep 22 · 02:10S. Szostok1.37P. Slosarczyk2.62—Sep 22 · 03:30S. Szostok1.53G. Marud2.09—Sep 22 · 04:20S. Szostok1.41M. Baron2.37—
M. Baron
Sep 21 · 19:55M. Baron2.10P. Kurek1.60—Sep 21 · 21:05M. Baron1.74M. Sikon1.95—Sep 21 · 22:20M. Baron2.05G. Marud1.66—Sep 21 · 23:50M. Baron1.58P. Slosarczyk2.02—Sep 22 · 24:30M. Baron2.00G. Marud1.59—Sep 22 · 01:30M. Baron2.10P. Kurek1.53—Sep 22 · 03:05M. Baron1.63M. Sikon1.93—Sep 22 · 04:20M. Baron2.37S. Szostok1.41—
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