TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Sikon vs Sebastian Szostok 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
2.65
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611811911––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
118611811911––
H2H Mateusz Sikon 6–6 Sebastian Szostok Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Sikon beat Szostok 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (67%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1383 vs Szostok 1448
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 100% vs Szostok 60%
Sikon
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 70% vs Szostok 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon +5 · Szostok +2
Sikon
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 2.65 / Szostok 1.33
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Szostok)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13172779
Sikon2.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 101 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 27 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 114
Szostok1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 331 of 514
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 215 of 270
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikon6wins
AwaySzostok4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSikon leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikon85.7%6 of 7
AwaySzostok100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon7Szostok3n = 10Sikon took 7 of 10
S2Sikon5Szostok5n = 10split evenly
S3Sikon5Szostok5n = 10split evenly
S4Sikon2Szostok7n = 9Szostok took 7 of 9
S5Sikon5Szostok2n = 7Sikon took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikonSzostokSikon − SzostokBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.745.9−2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 440 vs 915 / 157839.6%58%174 / 440 vs 915 / 1578Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSikon 2.65/Szostok 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.4%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 20:20M. Sikon44144123113S. Szostok501211101162
WSep 20 · 21:35M. Sikon511171111113S. Szostok4771181382
LSep 20 · 15:35M. Sikon31512681S. Szostok43111011113
LAug 26 · 13:30M. Sikon49118101282S. Szostok539111210113
LAug 26 · 07:20M. Sikon33711961S. Szostok4111811113
WAug 11 · 21:45M. Sikon531191110123S. Szostok48611912102
WAug 11 · 17:45M. Sikon50117116153S. Szostok50611911132
WJul 22 · 24:10M. Sikon511211116113S. Szostok50108131182
LJul 15 · 09:25M. Sikon3991131152S. Szostok49119117113
WJul 15 · 03:25M. Sikon361111143S. Szostok2897120
M. Sikon10
WSep 22 · 01:10M. Sikon1.6881111113P. Slosarczyk1.87117691WSep 21 · 22:40M. Sikon2.351141011123P. Kurek1.50711126102WSep 21 · 21:05M. Baron1.80117138112M. Sikon1.858111111133WSep 21 · 20:20S. Szostok1.571211101162M. Sikon2.20144123113WSep 21 · 19:30M. Sikon1.8011115113P. Slosarczyk1.90791181WSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061LSep 21 · 02:00M. Sikon1.8061060P. Slosarczyk1.901112113LSep 21 · 24:45M. Sikon1.90812981O. Sokolowski1.80111011113LSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113WSep 20 · 22:25R. Ogon3.0010680M. Sikon1.341211113
S. Szostok10
WSep 22 · 24:50S. Szostok1.591111133P. Kurek1.9979110WSep 21 · 23:05S. Szostok1.411111113P. Slosarczyk2.605460WSep 21 · 21:30S. Szostok1.571115113G. Marud2.0261370LSep 21 · 20:20S. Szostok1.571211101162M. Sikon2.20144123113LSep 21 · 18:45S. Szostok1.52791211132M. Baron2.301111108153WSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871LSep 21 · 02:45R. Ogon4.55111211153S. Szostok1.107144131WSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120WSep 21 · 24:25P. Slosarczyk2.15115941S. Szostok1.6091111113WSep 20 · 23:10O. Sokolowski2.607119151S. Szostok1.4111511173
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