TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Marud vs Sebastian Szostok 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
2.09
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11613117117111113
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
11613117117111113
H2H Grzegorz Marud 19–28 Sebastian Szostok Grzegorz Marud has won 19 of their 47 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Szostok beat Marud 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:21What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (58%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-28 in 47
Szostok
Correct
gap of 9 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1379 vs Szostok 1476
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 40% vs Szostok 100%
Szostok
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Szostok 70%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +2 · Szostok +5
Szostok
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 2.09 / Szostok 1.53
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Szostok)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13172764
Marud2.09
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 131 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back22% 38 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 103
Szostok1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 331 of 514
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 215 of 270
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud4wins
AwaySzostok6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud60%3 of 5
AwaySzostok80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud5Szostok5n = 10split evenly
S2Marud3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S3Marud4Szostok6n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S4Marud3Szostok5n = 8Szostok took 5 of 8
S5Marud2Szostok1n = 3Marud took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudSzostokM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.641.4−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1377 vs 916 / 157947.6%58%656 / 1377 vs 916 / 1579Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokMarud 2.09/Szostok 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 21:30G. Marud2661370S. Szostok371115113
WSep 15 · 03:55G. Marud511111105143S. Szostok49771211122
LSep 14 · 21:55G. Marud4011811642S. Szostok46511811113
WSep 1 · 23:20G. Marud561111716113S. Szostok56913111492
WSep 1 · 17:20G. Marud4111118113S. Szostok32951171
LAug 31 · 03:05G. Marud401191191S. Szostok4161113113
LAug 30 · 21:05G. Marud30671161S. Szostok4011117113
WJul 21 · 16:25G. Marud4281111123S. Szostok381189101
LJul 13 · 24:20G. Marud268990S. Szostok331111113
LJul 12 · 20:20G. Marud341181141S. Szostok4213117113
G. Marud10
WSep 22 · 01:50G. Marud1.751112311113M. Sikon1.9571411762WSep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.91611911113M. Baron1.7811911882LSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113LSep 21 · 22:20M. Baron1.951111113G. Marud1.756950LSep 21 · 21:30S. Szostok1.571115113G. Marud2.0261370LSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113WSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061WSep 21 · 05:05G. Marud1.571111113O. Vincenec2.031580WSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101
S. Szostok10
WSep 22 · 02:10S. Szostok1.4211711113P. Slosarczyk2.67211861WSep 22 · 24:50S. Szostok1.591111133P. Kurek1.9979110WSep 22 · 24:10M. Sikon2.65116891S. Szostok1.3381111113WSep 21 · 23:05S. Szostok1.411111113P. Slosarczyk2.605460WSep 21 · 21:30S. Szostok1.571115113G. Marud2.0261370LSep 21 · 20:20S. Szostok1.571211101162M. Sikon2.20144123113LSep 21 · 18:45S. Szostok1.52791211132M. Baron2.301111108153WSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871LSep 21 · 02:45R. Ogon4.55111211153S. Szostok1.107144131WSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.