TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Baron vs Pawel Slosarczyk 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.58
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111861112101214
Pawel Slosarczyk
Away
2.02
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
103 points played in total.
Set by set
81111861112101214
H2H Mariusz Baron 19–5 Pawel Slosarczyk Pawel Slosarczyk has won 5 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Baron beat Slosarczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (56%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-5 in 24
Baron
Wrong
gap of 14 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1325 vs Slosarczyk 1234
Baron
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 60% vs Slosarczyk 20%
Baron
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 50% vs Slosarczyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +1 · Slosarczyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Baron) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slosarczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.58 / Slosarczyk 2.02
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Baron)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13172781
Baron1.58
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 201 of 366
Up 2–0, closes it82% 97 of 118
Up 1–0, closes it68% 144 of 212
Slosarczyk2.02
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 106 of 346
Down 0–1, comes back13% 27 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron7wins
AwaySlosarczyk3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron85.7%6 of 7
AwaySlosarczyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron7Slosarczyk3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Baron6Slosarczyk4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S3Baron5Slosarczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Baron6Slosarczyk3n = 9Baron took 6 of 9
S5Baron2Slosarczyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronSlosarczykB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.838.8+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronSlosarczykBasisWin rate · lifetime873 / 1824 vs 338 / 88947.9%38%873 / 1824 vs 338 / 889Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.835.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronBaron 1.58/Slosarczyk 2.02
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Slosarczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 17:55M. Baron46111113113P. Slosarczyk36571591
WSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron4581115113P. Slosarczyk391181371
LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron4169111142P. Slosarczyk50111189113
WSep 9 · 22:25M. Baron51118129113P. Slosarczyk40311101152
LAug 10 · 03:05M. Baron33611791P. Slosarczyk4211911113
WAug 9 · 21:05M. Baron571191511113P. Slosarczyk4561117652
WJul 30 · 23:10M. Baron43111011113P. Slosarczyk36812881
LJul 30 · 17:10M. Baron501111101082P. Slosarczyk51791212113
WJul 20 · 01:55M. Baron331111113P. Slosarczyk226880
WJul 19 · 19:55M. Baron3911116113P. Slosarczyk27941131
M. Baron10
LSep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.91611911113M. Baron1.7811911882WSep 21 · 22:20M. Baron1.951111113G. Marud1.756950LSep 21 · 21:05M. Baron1.80117138112M. Sikon1.858111111133LSep 21 · 19:55M. Baron2.108211101P. Kurek1.6711114123WSep 21 · 18:45S. Szostok1.52791211132M. Baron2.301111108153WSep 21 · 17:55M. Baron1.70111113113P. Slosarczyk2.00571591LSep 21 · 04:20P. Adamus1.47111311123M. Baron2.219158101LSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101WSep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.881111123O. Vincenec1.6748100WSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560
P. Slosarczyk10
LSep 21 · 23:05S. Szostok1.411111113P. Slosarczyk2.605460LSep 21 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk2.40118551P. Kurek1.5091111113WSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113LSep 21 · 19:30M. Sikon1.8011115113P. Slosarczyk1.90791181LSep 21 · 17:55M. Baron1.70111113113P. Slosarczyk2.00571591WSep 21 · 02:00M. Sikon1.8061060P. Slosarczyk1.901112113WSep 21 · 01:10R. Ogon2.854750P. Slosarczyk1.361111113LSep 21 · 24:25P. Slosarczyk2.15115941S. Szostok1.6091111113WSep 20 · 22:50P. Slosarczyk1.90111111113J. Nowak1.80135661WSep 20 · 22:00O. Sokolowski1.766101191P. Slosarczyk1.9511127113
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