TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Sikon vs Pawel Kurek 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
1.81
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1199115111311119
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched — 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
1199115111311119
H2H Mateusz Sikon 6–18 Pawel Kurek Mateusz Sikon has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sikon beat Kurek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:20What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (51%)
Sikon
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-18 in 24
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1378 vs Kurek 1393
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 60% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 70% vs Kurek 50%
Sikon
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon +1 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 1.81 / Kurek 1.90
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurek)+5.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13172761
Sikon1.81
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 61 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it77% 41 of 53
Kurek1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 127 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikon3wins
AwayKurek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikon42.9%3 of 7
AwayKurek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon7Kurek3n = 10Sikon took 7 of 10
S2Sikon3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S3Sikon2Kurek8n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S4Sikon3Kurek6n = 9Kurek took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikonKurekS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.840.6−3.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 444 vs 430 / 85139.6%50.5%176 / 444 vs 430 / 851Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekSikon 1.81/Kurek 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 22:40M. Sikon481141011123P. Kurek46711126102
WSep 16 · 13:10M. Sikon4211911113P. Kurek30611671
LSep 16 · 05:30M. Sikon227960P. Kurek331111113
LSep 14 · 13:55M. Sikon32411981P. Kurek3811511113
LSep 14 · 04:10M. Sikon321210281P. Kurek44101211113
LSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon27116461P. Kurek3851111113
LSep 10 · 05:50M. Sikon4711119882P. Kurek50981111113
WSep 8 · 24:50M. Sikon4211911113P. Kurek35811881
LSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon331174111P. Kurek4491111133
LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon4381411101P. Kurek48111213123
M. Sikon10
WSep 22 · 03:05M. Baron1.6311119992M. Sikon1.93771111113LSep 22 · 01:50G. Marud1.751112311113M. Sikon1.9571411762WSep 22 · 01:10M. Sikon1.6881111113P. Slosarczyk1.87117691LSep 22 · 24:10M. Sikon2.65116891S. Szostok1.3381111113WSep 21 · 22:40M. Sikon2.351141011123P. Kurek1.50711126102WSep 21 · 21:05M. Baron1.80117138112M. Sikon1.858111111133WSep 21 · 20:20S. Szostok1.571211101162M. Sikon2.20144123113WSep 21 · 19:30M. Sikon1.8011115113P. Slosarczyk1.90791181WSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061LSep 21 · 02:00M. Sikon1.8061060P. Slosarczyk1.901112113
P. Kurek10
LSep 22 · 03:55P. Slosarczyk2.3911911113P. Kurek1.41911671WSep 22 · 01:30M. Baron2.15711631P. Kurek1.6311711113LSep 22 · 24:50S. Szostok1.591111133P. Kurek1.9979110WSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113LSep 21 · 22:40M. Sikon2.351141011123P. Kurek1.50711126102WSep 21 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk2.40118551P. Kurek1.5091111113WSep 21 · 19:55M. Baron2.108211101P. Kurek1.6711114123LSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 17:30S. Szostok1.90101111113P. Kurek1.75126871WSep 21 · 04:40W. Urban1.852550P. Kurek1.801111113
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