TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Rafal Gajda 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611116611119114
Rafal Gajda
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
611116611119114
H2H Marek Tkocz 2–0 Rafal Gajda Rafal Gajda has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1412 vs Gajda 1328
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 80% vs Gajda 40%
Tkocz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 60% vs Gajda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +4 · Gajda +1
Tkocz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.57 / Gajda 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Tkocz)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13179695
Tkocz1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 288 of 431
Up 2–0, closes it95% 161 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it85% 236 of 279
Gajda2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 124 of 282
Down 0–1, comes back27% 44 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTkocz2wins
AwayGajda0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderTkocz leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTkoczGajdaT − GBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match42.027.5+14.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1176 vs 426 / 82866.3%51.5%780 / 1176 vs 426 / 828Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.57/Gajda 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.2%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 8 · 18:45M. Tkocz331111113R. Gajda238870
WAug 25 · 18:25M. Tkocz51119119113R. Gajda3261131112
M. Tkocz10
WSep 22 · 17:35M. Tkocz1.7511911113P. Kaczynski1.95611881WSep 22 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.659550M. Tkocz1.401111113WSep 22 · 15:35M. Tkocz1.651161112113P. Kurek2.0541171472WSep 18 · 02:20M. Adamus2.45661161M. Tkocz1.4411118113LSep 18 · 01:35P. Polok1.731111123M. Tkocz1.9255100LSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981LSep 17 · 22:50G. Jurowicz2.50111211113M. Tkocz1.45714451LSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272WSep 17 · 20:20W. Pytlas2.191161110102M. Tkocz1.56611612123WSep 17 · 19:35P. Zemla1.79913111122M. Tkocz1.851111139113
R. Gajda10
WSep 22 · 18:00W. Pytlas1.835460R. Gajda1.861111113LSep 22 · 17:10R. Gajda1.7413831192P. Kurek1.951111116113WSep 22 · 16:00R. Gajda1.298111213123K. Kowalski3.301161015102LSep 22 · 08:20R. Gajda2.60710100K. Hetnar1.411112123LSep 22 · 06:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.831111113R. Gajda1.863290WSep 22 · 06:00I. Szymanski3.55126231R. Gajda1.18101111113WSep 22 · 05:10R. Gajda1.8311611113J. Kaczmarek1.87911691LSep 22 · 04:00R. Gajda1.2511914882K. Kowalski3.456111211113WSep 16 · 13:55R. Gajda1.20111111113I. Szymanski4.33461351WSep 16 · 12:40R. Gajda1.831191112113K. Adamus1.83131191092
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