TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Idaczyk vs Marian Lebek 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
2.60
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191113114611117
Marian Lebek
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:33 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1191113114611117
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 13–24 Marian Lebek Rafal Idaczyk has won 13 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (64%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-24 in 37
Lebek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1313 vs Lebek 1381
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 20% vs Lebek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 20% vs Lebek 40%
Lebek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk -4 · Lebek -2
Idaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 2.60 / Lebek 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Lebek)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13178317
Idaczyk2.60
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 96 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 109
Lebek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 238 of 381
Up 2–0, closes it96% 160 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it82% 211 of 258
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk2wins
AwayLebek8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLebek88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk1Lebek9n = 10Lebek took 9 of 10
S2Idaczyk2Lebek8n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S3Idaczyk4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S4Idaczyk1Lebek3n = 4Lebek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykLebekI − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match27.437.6−10.2per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime466 / 941 vs 845 / 145149.5%58.2%466 / 941 vs 845 / 1451Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekIdaczyk 2.60/Lebek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.6%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 08:00R. Idaczyk183690M. Lebek331111113
LAug 25 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1910540M. Lebek341211113
LAug 21 · 08:20R. Idaczyk25111130M. Lebek371313113
LAug 19 · 03:35R. Idaczyk168440M. Lebek331111113
LAug 14 · 08:00R. Idaczyk27821161M. Lebek4211119113
WJul 15 · 03:35R. Idaczyk46211119133M. Lebek45113911112
LJun 25 · 05:35R. Idaczyk2151150M. Lebek351113113
LJun 21 · 11:25R. Idaczyk157530M. Lebek331111113
WJun 21 · 05:15R. Idaczyk4012611113M. Lebek331011391
LJun 17 · 04:00R. Idaczyk47911125102M. Lebek511171011123
R. Idaczyk10
WSep 23 · 04:25I. Szymanski2.605560R. Idaczyk1.441111113LSep 21 · 13:55J. Pruszkowski1.401111113R. Idaczyk2.758580LSep 21 · 13:05M. Skuril1.911111123R. Idaczyk1.8098100LSep 21 · 12:15R. Idaczyk2.007970P. Gumulinski1.731111113LSep 21 · 10:35R. Idaczyk2.0091112131P. Przewlocki1.7311914153WSep 21 · 09:50J. Pelka2.2013101181R. Idaczyk1.6115126113LSep 21 · 08:35R. Idaczyk2.1011119692P. Gumulinski1.67781111113LSep 21 · 06:55R. Idaczyk1.9158111162M. Skuril1.80111197113LSep 21 · 05:40R. Idaczyk1.83810190J. Pelka1.831112213LSep 21 · 04:10R. Idaczyk3.001071181J. Pruszkowski1.3612116113
M. Lebek10
LSep 23 · 02:45P. Adamus1.7181111113M. Lebek2.00117991LSep 23 · 01:35M. Lebek1.4291090M. Paszkiewicz2.481112113WSep 23 · 24:25P. Kurek2.1531171162M. Lebek1.60118118113LSep 22 · 23:10M. Sikon2.7511169113M. Lebek1.319141161LSep 22 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.80111176113M. Lebek1.9098111192LSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660WSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010890M. Lebek1.271211113LSep 18 · 06:25M. Lebek2.10118851P. Polok1.6551111113WSep 18 · 04:50M. Lebek1.5711119133Y. Fomin2.209411111WSep 18 · 04:00M. Adamus2.25911571M. Lebek1.5511811113
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