TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911711––––
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Idaczyk above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 57.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 17–25 Piotr Gumulinski Rafal Idaczyk has won 17 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Gumulinski beat Idaczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:52What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-25 in 42
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 8 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1344 vs Gumulinski 1553
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 20% vs Gumulinski 100%
Gumulinski
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 40% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk -1 · Gumulinski +8
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Gumulinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 2.00 / Gumulinski 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Gumulinski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13164853
Idaczyk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 98 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back16% 25 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 107
Gumulinski1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 355 of 579
Up 2–0, closes it94% 161 of 171
Up 1–0, closes it76% 240 of 315
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk5wins
AwayGumulinski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczyk71.4%5 of 7
AwayGumulinski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk7Gumulinski3n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Idaczyk8Gumulinski2n = 10Idaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Idaczyk3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S4Idaczyk3Gumulinski4n = 7Gumulinski took 4 of 7
S5Idaczyk1Gumulinski3n = 4Gumulinski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykGumulinskiI − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.739.2+0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 942 vs 1031 / 182549.7%56.5%468 / 942 vs 1031 / 1825Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiIdaczyk 2.00/Gumulinski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 12:15R. Idaczyk237970P. Gumulinski331111113
LSep 21 · 08:35R. Idaczyk4611119692P. Gumulinski48781111113
LSep 8 · 09:25R. Idaczyk4111119552P. Gumulinski46581111113
WSep 8 · 03:25R. Idaczyk521111127113P. Gumulinski4128141162
LSep 1 · 08:00R. Idaczyk32711951P. Gumulinski4211911113
WAug 28 · 09:25R. Idaczyk4715129113P. Gumulinski4313101191
WAug 28 · 03:25R. Idaczyk351111133P. Gumulinski2779110
LAug 21 · 05:10R. Idaczyk4164111192P. Gumulinski49111197113
WAug 14 · 05:35R. Idaczyk341111123P. Gumulinski2266100
WMay 17 · 04:25R. Idaczyk46111112123P. Gumulinski418914101
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 21 · 13:55J. Pruszkowski1.401111113R. Idaczyk2.758580LSep 21 · 13:05M. Skuril1.911111123R. Idaczyk1.8098100LSep 21 · 10:35R. Idaczyk2.0091112131P. Przewlocki1.7311914153WSep 21 · 09:50J. Pelka2.2013101181R. Idaczyk1.6115126113LSep 21 · 08:35R. Idaczyk2.1011119692P. Gumulinski1.67781111113LSep 21 · 06:55R. Idaczyk1.9158111162M. Skuril1.80111197113LSep 21 · 05:40R. Idaczyk1.83810190J. Pelka1.831112213LSep 21 · 04:10R. Idaczyk3.001071181J. Pruszkowski1.3612116113WSep 21 · 03:00R. Idaczyk1.83711125123P. Przewlocki1.831161011102LSep 15 · 08:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.1514914113R. Idaczyk1.6012111291
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 21 · 13:30P. Gumulinski1.6111101111113P. Przewlocki2.2081213732LSep 21 · 11:00J. Pelka1.8361P. Gumulinski1.8350WSep 21 · 09:25J. Pruszkowski1.67111070P. Gumulinski2.101312113WSep 21 · 08:35R. Idaczyk2.1011119692P. Gumulinski1.67781111113WSep 21 · 07:20P. Gumulinski1.53111118113P. Przewlocki2.388131671WSep 21 · 06:05M. Skuril2.2011123482P. Gumulinski1.615101111113WSep 21 · 04:55J. Pelka1.8311914462P. Gumulinski1.838111211113WSep 21 · 03:25J. Pruszkowski1.6711771182P. Gumulinski2.10911118113WSep 17 · 14:20K. Kowalski4.3313581182P. Gumulinski1.201111116113WSep 17 · 13:30W. Ptak2.20114100P. Gumulinski1.611311123
Upcoming Matches
R. Idaczyk
Nothing scheduled
P. Gumulinski
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