TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13151012116811––
Rafal Idaczyk
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Rafal Idaczyk below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 86 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Rafal Idaczyk at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 21–28 Rafal Idaczyk Jerzy Pelka has won 21 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:52What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Idaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-28 in 49
Idaczyk
Correct
gap of 7 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1409 vs Idaczyk 1345
Pelka
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 80% vs Idaczyk 20%
Pelka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 70% vs Idaczyk 50%
Pelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +3 · Idaczyk -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Idaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Idaczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 2.20 / Idaczyk 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Idaczyk)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13164845
Pelka2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 86 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Idaczyk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 107 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it81% 87 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka5wins
AwayIdaczyk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka100%3 of 3
AwayIdaczyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka3Idaczyk7n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Pelka5Idaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Pelka6Idaczyk4n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S4Pelka4Idaczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Pelka2Idaczyk1n = 3Pelka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaIdaczykP − IBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.939.5+1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaIdaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime444 / 945 vs 470 / 94347%49.8%444 / 945 vs 470 / 943Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykPelka 2.20/Idaczyk 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 05:40J. Pelka441112213R. Idaczyk37810190
WAug 4 · 13:30J. Pelka49811711123R. Idaczyk42113117102
LAug 4 · 07:30J. Pelka38891381R. Idaczyk44111111113
LJun 18 · 07:10J. Pelka32891141R. Idaczyk3611113113
LJun 2 · 13:55J. Pelka4791181182R. Idaczyk46115118113
WJun 2 · 07:55J. Pelka4511914113R. Idaczyk409111281
LMay 22 · 05:55J. Pelka2596100R. Idaczyk341111123
WMay 5 · 12:45J. Pelka3911116113R. Idaczyk33761191
LMay 5 · 10:20J. Pelka4041511101R. Idaczyk4611176123
WApr 21 · 15:30J. Pelka50811119113R. Idaczyk3711561142
J. Pelka10
WSep 21 · 08:10J. Pelka1.7311911133P. Przewlocki2.003116111WSep 21 · 06:30J. Pruszkowski1.57391191J. Pelka2.2511119113WSep 21 · 05:40R. Idaczyk1.83810190J. Pelka1.831112213LSep 21 · 04:55J. Pelka1.8311914462P. Gumulinski1.838111211113WSep 21 · 03:50J. Pelka1.9181111133M. Skuril1.801184111LSep 19 · 08:00J. Pelka1.65891141T. Lojtek2.1011119113WSep 19 · 06:45J. Pelka1.3014811113M. Cesarz3.251211481WSep 19 · 05:35J. Pelka1.5411911113J. Kaczmarek2.25611791WSep 19 · 04:25W. Urban1.83117991J. Pelka1.8381111113LSep 19 · 03:35J. Pelka1.90111111121W. Pytlas1.8013813143
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 21 · 10:35R. Idaczyk2.0091112131P. Przewlocki1.7311914153LSep 21 · 08:35R. Idaczyk2.1011119692P. Gumulinski1.67781111113LSep 21 · 06:55R. Idaczyk1.9158111162M. Skuril1.80111197113LSep 21 · 05:40R. Idaczyk1.83810190J. Pelka1.831112213LSep 21 · 04:10R. Idaczyk3.001071181J. Pruszkowski1.3612116113WSep 21 · 03:00R. Idaczyk1.83711125123P. Przewlocki1.831161011102LSep 15 · 08:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.1514914113R. Idaczyk1.6012111291WSep 15 · 07:10W. Urban1.86961241R. Idaczyk1.83111110113WSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.61151311173J. Nowak2.1513155151WSep 15 · 04:50R. Idaczyk1.491113113J. Kaczmarek2.3431160
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