TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Kurek vs Marian Lebek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
2.15
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311118711118611
Marian Lebek
Away
1.60
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
311118711118611
H2H Pawel Kurek 4–7 Marian Lebek Pawel Kurek has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Lebek
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1394 vs Lebek 1398
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Lebek 20%
Kurek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 60% vs Lebek 40%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +1 · Lebek -3
Lebek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (20%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.15 / Lebek 1.60
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Lebek)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13180694
Kurek2.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 127 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Lebek1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 238 of 381
Up 2–0, closes it96% 160 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it82% 211 of 258
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek4wins
AwayLebek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek100%3 of 3
AwayLebek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek3Lebek7n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Kurek5Lebek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurek4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S4Kurek4Lebek3n = 7Kurek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekLebekK − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.136.3−2.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 860 vs 844 / 144850.6%58.3%435 / 860 vs 844 / 1448Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekKurek 2.15/Lebek 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 03:35P. Kurek33613861M. Lebek44111111113
WAug 27 · 03:10P. Kurek4111811113M. Lebek25511361
LAug 26 · 22:50P. Kurek301010100M. Lebek361212123
LAug 19 · 07:35P. Kurek187740M. Lebek331111113
WAug 19 · 02:45P. Kurek4111811113M. Lebek33811951
WJul 9 · 23:10P. Kurek3961111113M. Lebek32119571
LJun 26 · 07:10P. Kurek165650M. Lebek331111113
LJun 17 · 22:50P. Kurek4791111882M. Lebek44118311113
LJun 11 · 05:10P. Kurek331111651M. Lebek4413911113
WJun 10 · 23:10P. Kurek4311129113M. Lebek399101191
P. Kurek10
LSep 23 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.801111113P. Kurek1.905570WSep 23 · 01:10P. Adamus1.8568121182P. Kurek1.801111109113WSep 22 · 22:50P. Kurek1.701111113M. Paszkiewicz1.954660LSep 22 · 22:00M. Sikon2.951311113P. Kurek1.3611490WSep 22 · 20:45W. Pytlas2.05119761P. Kurek1.6571111113WSep 22 · 19:35P. Kurek1.931111113P. Kaczynski1.787980WSep 22 · 18:25K. Kowalski4.507590P. Kurek1.101111113WSep 22 · 17:10R. Gajda1.7413831192P. Kurek1.951111116113LSep 22 · 15:35M. Tkocz1.651161112113P. Kurek2.0541171472LSep 22 · 04:40M. Sikon1.81119513113P. Kurek1.90911111192
M. Lebek10
LSep 23 · 01:35M. Lebek1.4291090M. Paszkiewicz2.481112113LSep 22 · 23:10M. Sikon2.7511169113M. Lebek1.319141161LSep 22 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.80111176113M. Lebek1.9098111192LSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660WSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010890M. Lebek1.271211113LSep 18 · 06:25M. Lebek2.10118851P. Polok1.6551111113WSep 18 · 04:50M. Lebek1.5711119133Y. Fomin2.209411111WSep 18 · 04:00M. Adamus2.25911571M. Lebek1.5511811113WSep 18 · 02:45M. Lebek2.141112113P. Polok1.5861070LSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Lebek
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