TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Kolesnykov vs Oleh Karpenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Valerii Kolesnykov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161210911911711
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Kolesnykov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 97 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Valerii Kolesnykov at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 40–38 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 38 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:08What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Karpenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-38 in 78
Kolesnykov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1614 vs Karpenko 1573
Kolesnykov
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 80% vs Karpenko 40%
Kolesnykov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 70% vs Karpenko 40%
Kolesnykov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov +3 · Karpenko +1
Kolesnykov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolesnykov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 1.83 / Karpenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolesnykov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13179616
Kolesnykov1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Karpenko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnykov4wins
AwayKarpenko6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKarpenko leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov66.7%2 of 3
AwayKarpenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov3Karpenko7n = 10Karpenko took 7 of 10
S2Kolesnykov7Karpenko3n = 10Kolesnykov took 7 of 10
S3Kolesnykov3Karpenko7n = 10Karpenko took 7 of 10
S4Kolesnykov5Karpenko4n = 9Kolesnykov took 5 of 9
S5Kolesnykov3Karpenko4n = 7Karpenko took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnykovKarpenkoKolesnykov − KarpenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.343.5−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 661 vs 360 / 68753.4%52.4%353 / 661 vs 360 / 687Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnykovKolesnykov 1.83/Karpenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolesnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov4811129972O. Karpenko496101111113
WSep 15 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov3511211113O. Karpenko33811591
LAug 27 · 06:05V. Kolesnykov4431381282O. Karpenko5411111110113
WJul 27 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov40211511113O. Karpenko4311611872
LJul 20 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov4141181172O. Karpenko47118116113
WJul 17 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov511111117113O. Karpenko4813781192
LJul 14 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov30511681O. Karpenko3811511113
WJul 13 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov46119114113O. Karpenko4481161182
LJun 29 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov163850O. Karpenko331111113
LJun 26 · 10:35V. Kolesnykov4251251192O. Karpenko461110113113
V. Kolesnykov10
WSep 23 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.831111113O. Volynets1.838950WSep 21 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.618911101V. Kolesnykov2.2011115123WSep 21 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov1.611181110113A. Martyniuk2.2091181292LSep 21 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov3.00122671A. Troyan1.36101111113WSep 21 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov1.6171111133V. Bilobrov2.201135111WSep 21 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.1011418113D. Khairov1.679111681WSep 17 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.73111155113I. Emets2.0096111152LSep 17 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.28971191O. Leonenko3.5011114113WSep 17 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov1.281111113F. Voinarovskyi3.509880LSep 17 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov1.7371090O. Volynets2.001112113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 23 · 05:00I. Emets3.259111191O. Karpenko1.3311813113LSep 18 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.20116611113O. Karpenko1.6141111572LSep 18 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6711511133O. Karpenko2.105116111LSep 18 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.679111115113O. Karpenko2.1011971772WSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.441197111O. Karpenko2.6361111133LSep 18 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4081211113O. Karpenko2.751110791WSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113LSep 15 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6761111113O. Karpenko2.10118941WSep 15 · 08:30I. Emets3.2581191182O. Karpenko1.33118118113LSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.751111113O. Karpenko1.404660
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