TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Valerii Kolesnykov
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111131151311––
Volodymyr Bilobrov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeValerii Kolesnykov to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Volodymyr Bilobrov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 72 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Valerii Kolesnykov at 61.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 4–1 Volodymyr Bilobrov Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolesnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kolesnykov
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1609 vs Bilobrov 1560
Kolesnykov
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Bilobrov 80%
Bilobrov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Bilobrov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov +2 · Bilobrov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kolesnykov) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bilobrov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 1.61 / Bilobrov 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kolesnykov)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166140
Kolesnykov1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 91 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it75% 61 of 81
Bilobrov2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back17% 5 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKolesnykov4wins
AwayBilobrov1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKolesnykov leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBilobrov0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov2Bilobrov3n = 5Bilobrov took 3 of 5
S2Kolesnykov4Bilobrov1n = 5Kolesnykov took 4 of 5
S3Kolesnykov4Bilobrov1n = 5Kolesnykov took 4 of 5
S4Kolesnykov3Bilobrov1n = 4Kolesnykov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKolesnykovBilobrovK − BBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match44.637.8+6.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovBilobrovBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 663 vs 77 / 16953.2%45.6%353 / 663 vs 77 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnykovKolesnykov 1.61/Bilobrov 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Kolesnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolesnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 21 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov4271111133V. Bilobrov301135111
WSep 15 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov5710111211133V. Bilobrov46125144112
WJul 20 · 07:35V. Kolesnykov4261213113V. Bilobrov3711101151
LJun 26 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov49111413382V. Bilobrov578161111113
WJun 8 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov331111113V. Bilobrov195590
V. Kolesnykov10
WSep 21 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.1011418113D. Khairov1.679111681WSep 17 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.73111155113I. Emets2.0096111152LSep 17 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.28971191O. Leonenko3.5011114113WSep 17 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov1.281111113F. Voinarovskyi3.509880LSep 17 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov1.7371090O. Volynets2.001112113WSep 17 · 05:05V. Kolesnykov1.5011115113O. Osadchyi2.50371181WSep 15 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov1.7311813123I. Emets2.0081111101LSep 15 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov2.63861181Y. Kovshun1.4411115113WSep 15 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov1.5710111211133V. Bilobrov2.25125144112LSep 15 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov3.00119331A. Troyan1.3681111113
V. Bilobrov10
WSep 21 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.281111113A. Martyniuk3.508570WSep 18 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.20116611113O. Karpenko1.6141111572LSep 18 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.4011811113V. Bilobrov2.75911781WSep 18 · 08:00V. Bilobrov2.751111113A. Troyan1.409580WSep 18 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.337640V. Bilobrov3.251111113LSep 15 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.502950A. Troyan1.501111113LSep 15 · 09:30I. Emets3.4031116113V. Bilobrov1.301121461LSep 15 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov1.5710111211133V. Bilobrov2.25125144112WSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.751111113O. Karpenko1.404660LSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3611711113V. Bilobrov3.00711881
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