TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148560
Played Sep 18Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611411––––
Volodymyr Bilobrov
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Volodymyr Bilobrov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 50 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 75.3%
50 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 11–4 Volodymyr Bilobrov Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:50What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1607 vs Bilobrov 1551
Kovshun
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 40% vs Bilobrov 20%
Kovshun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 70% vs Bilobrov 30%
Kovshun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun -2 · Bilobrov -3
Bilobrov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kovshun) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bilobrov form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.33 / Bilobrov 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kovshun)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13148560
Kovshun1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 97 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 87
Bilobrov3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 21 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back17% 5 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun7wins
AwayBilobrov3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun85.7%6 of 7
AwayBilobrov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun7Bilobrov3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S2Kovshun7Bilobrov3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Kovshun7Bilobrov3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Kovshun4Bilobrov1n = 5Kovshun took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunBilobrovK − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.431.2+5.2per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunBilobrovBasisWin rate · lifetime343 / 635 vs 74 / 16454%45.1%343 / 635 vs 74 / 164Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.33/Bilobrov 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bilobrov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 07:00Y. Kovshun177640V. Bilobrov331111113
WSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun4011711113V. Bilobrov34711881
WSep 12 · 07:05Y. Kovshun331111113V. Bilobrov185760
LSep 11 · 05:30Y. Kovshun4151161182V. Bilobrov47119115113
WJul 14 · 07:05Y. Kovshun3911116113V. Bilobrov24341161
WJun 26 · 11:05Y. Kovshun4181111113V. Bilobrov31118391
LJun 7 · 09:05Y. Kovshun44118111042V. Bilobrov46411812113
WMay 25 · 11:00Y. Kovshun331111113V. Bilobrov196850
WMay 23 · 08:05Y. Kovshun401215133V. Bilobrov341013110
WDec 28 · 10:30Y. Kovshun361411113V. Bilobrov2612590
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 18 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.4411570A. Troyan2.631311113LSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113WSep 15 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov2.63861181Y. Kovshun1.4411115113LSep 15 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011911482A. Troyan2.50711311113WSep 15 · 07:00I. Emets4.33411451Y. Kovshun1.2011211113WSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3611711113V. Bilobrov3.00711881WSep 12 · 11:35Y. Volkov1.8011211762Y. Kovshun1.91611911113WSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan2.3811117972Y. Kovshun1.53641111113WSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113WSep 12 · 07:05V. Bilobrov2.505760Y. Kovshun1.501111113
V. Bilobrov10
LSep 15 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.502950A. Troyan1.501111113LSep 15 · 09:30I. Emets3.4031116113V. Bilobrov1.301121461LSep 15 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov1.5710111211133V. Bilobrov2.25125144112WSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.751111113O. Karpenko1.404660LSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3611711113V. Bilobrov3.00711881LSep 12 · 12:05V. Bilobrov2.204101151A. Troyan1.6111127113WSep 12 · 10:05A. Kotiash1.739720V. Bilobrov2.001111113LSep 12 · 08:05I. Efimenko1.2051111113V. Bilobrov4.33118521LSep 12 · 07:05V. Bilobrov2.505760Y. Kovshun1.501111113WSep 12 · 06:05Y. Volkov1.3671112752V. Bilobrov3.001181011113
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