TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148275
Played Sep 18Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111191171517117
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 15-17
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 108 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 56.2%
108 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 22–15 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-15 in 37
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1607 vs Karpenko 1591
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 20% vs Karpenko 60%
Karpenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 60% vs Karpenko 40%
Kovshun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun -3 · Karpenko +1
Kovshun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.67 / Karpenko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kovshun)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13148275
Kovshun1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 97 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 87
Karpenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 76 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back18% 11 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun6wins
AwayKarpenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun100%4 of 4
AwayKarpenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovshun6Karpenko4n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S3Kovshun5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovshun6Karpenko3n = 9Kovshun took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunKarpenkoKovshun − KarpenkoBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.535.6+2.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime343 / 635 vs 363 / 69754%52.1%343 / 635 vs 363 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.67/Karpenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun27681121O. Karpenko4111118113
WSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun4511149113O. Karpenko315121131
LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun4351181182O. Karpenko46117116113
WJul 24 · 07:05Y. Kovshun4212811113O. Karpenko331011751
LJul 9 · 06:00Y. Kovshun238960O. Karpenko331111113
WJul 3 · 06:35Y. Kovshun4391112113O. Karpenko311131071
WJun 30 · 10:40Y. Kovshun46117116113O. Karpenko3921161192
LJun 26 · 09:05Y. Kovshun381111791O. Karpenko3813311113
WMay 28 · 07:35Y. Kovshun3741111113O. Karpenko34116891
WMay 22 · 05:05Y. Kovshun4111118113O. Karpenko30951151
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 18 · 09:30Y. Kovshun1.9110560S. Kyienko1.801211113LSep 18 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.337640V. Bilobrov3.251111113LSep 18 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.4411570A. Troyan2.631311113LSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113WSep 15 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov2.63861181Y. Kovshun1.4411115113LSep 15 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011911482A. Troyan2.50711311113WSep 15 · 07:00I. Emets4.33411451Y. Kovshun1.2011211113WSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3611711113V. Bilobrov3.00711881WSep 12 · 11:35Y. Volkov1.8011211762Y. Kovshun1.91611911113WSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan2.3811117972Y. Kovshun1.53641111113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.441197111O. Karpenko2.6361111133LSep 18 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4081211113O. Karpenko2.751110791WSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113LSep 15 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6761111113O. Karpenko2.10118941WSep 15 · 08:30I. Emets3.2581191182O. Karpenko1.33118118113LSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.751111113O. Karpenko1.404660LSep 15 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.8311211113O. Karpenko1.83811591WSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk1.61116128113O. Karpenko2.20211101162
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